In 2015, the 138 billion National Fund and nearly 140 billion local funds showed a feast of capital in China's IC industry.
The Big Fund invested 40 billion in 25 projects, and local government funds attracted hundreds of integrated circuit investments. In addition, Chinese companies and capitals based on Jianguang Capital, Wuyuefeng, Qingxin Huachuang and Ziguang Group have invested 15 billion US dollars overseas to complete 10 international mergers and acquisitions.
China plans to invest a total of 150 billion US dollars in the field of integrated circuits in 2015-2020, which is close to 40 times of all previous investments. In order to improve the efficiency of government investment, the state has also introduced a large fund that takes into account policy orientation and market profitability. This is also a revolutionary attempt by the government's investment strategy.
In the "National Integrated Circuit Industry Promotion" and "Made in China 2025" plans, the development goals of China's integrated circuits are planned as "global leadership", and the policy-oriented grand capital entry has created a golden age for China's integrated circuit industry.
However, the capital energy alone cannot bring about qualitative changes to the integrated circuit industry. The semiconductor empire based on acquisitions is also not stable and there is a possibility of collapse at any time. “The mergers and acquisitions in the technology industry are very different. The mergers and acquisitions that use the advantages of both sides to manage properly create significant value, but the integration of insufficient mergers and acquisitions may have disastrous consequences.†McKinsey Global Associate Director Christopher Thomas (Tang Ruisi) accepts the author The interview said: "For Chinese companies, the management of team building, products and projects will be more difficult than the general acquisition, because most of the work needs to be transferred from the world to China. The synergy between R&D and IP transfer often It is more difficult to achieve than manufacturing and operations.†For China, cutting-edge technology and manufacturing equipment have export restrictions.
In essence, Chinese companies do not have sufficient technical capabilities and global management capabilities to lead the semiconductor empire. The rapid march of capital investment does not make up for the core problems of leading figures and platform-level enterprises.
What's more, seemingly bulky investments are far from enough to shake the global landscape in the global integrated circuit landscape.
McKinsey's latest report, "The New World Under Construction: China and Semiconductors," points out that although Chinese companies have invested $15 billion overseas, this fund's global acquisitions in 2015 accounted for less than 10%. Moreover, over the past year, global IC companies have spent $80 billion on capital expenditures and R&D spending, which is 20 times that of local Chinese companies.
Take the sub-market of wafer foundry as an example. If China achieves the goal of “70% of IC20 self-sufficiency in 2025†in “Made in China 2025â€, the global wafer foundry capacity must be increased in the next decade. Flowers fall in China. But now, China's largest foundry, SMIC, ranks fifth in the world, with less than 10% of its first place. Even if all of the 138 billion National Funds are invested in foundry, only three advanced production lines will be built.
It should be pointed out that in the current industry investment, the large funds and government funds that are state-owned assets also have the contradiction of “industrial development and fund income are difficult to balanceâ€. In most areas of the industry, the return on investment has been more than ten years, and the current form of investment by state-owned funds is hard to become “patient capitalâ€. In McKinsey's view, patient capital is an indispensable element of the integrated circuit industry.
The more obvious phenomenon is that before the opportunity, the pace of capital shots is much faster than the growth rate of enterprises and industries. However, in the face of the industrial demand for long-term investment throughout the business cycle, the current capital often lacks stamina.
From this point of view, the investment mechanism of the big fund needs further reform. Not long ago, Zhao Weiguo, chairman of the Ziguang Group, suggested: “The big fund should be made into a parent fund incubation marketization fund to incite greater capital.†Not sure if this will become the direction of reform of the big fund.
However, strong policy, capital orientation, and more than 50% of the global market share make China's IC industry more and more important, which also attracts international giants to start to change their development strategy in China, and step by step. Since the end of 2014, Texas Instruments has invested 1.7 billion US dollars in Chengdu to build a high-end packaging and testing base. Intel invested more than 7 billion US dollars in Chengdu and Dalian to introduce advanced technology, and high-GM best-selling products to cultivate SMIC's 28nm and higher-end technologies. Established the ARM server chip company controlled by China with Guizhou. In addition, in 2015, UMC, Powerchip and TSMC in Taiwan also began to invest nearly 10 billion US dollars in the mainland.
Chip giants will increase the Chinese market and will gradually improve the talent, technology and operation environment of China's IC industry. Local companies based in China will also benefit. However, the layout of the chip giant has always centered on the global market, while Chinese local companies are largely confined to the Chinese market, and rarely see the global perspective. If we want to achieve "global leadership," this is also the thinking that Chinese companies urgently need to change.
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