(Original title: Artificial Intelligence rated the most destructive technology in the next 10 years)
Qian Tongxin
Every year, the technology maturity curve (TheHypeCycle) released by Gartner has attracted the attention of the market, and has also become a vane for enterprises to make major investment decisions. The technology maturity curve, also known as technology cycle curve, halo curve, and hype cycle, refers to a tool that the company uses to assess the visibility of new technology and use the timeline and market visibility (media exposure) to decide whether to adopt new technology. .
The most destructive technology in the next 10 years
In 2017, the emerging technology curve released by Gartner introduced three trends: ubiquitous artificial intelligence (AI); transparent immersive experience; and digital platform. In these three major trends, Gartner pointed out that the four technology areas are worthy of priority for decision makers: commercial ecosystem extension technology, such as blockchain; fusion technology, such as brain-computer interface; commercial automation technology, such as carrying goods and services Commercial drones; security-type technologies such as software-defined security will lead to a more secure digital world.
The brightest emerging technology maturity curve in 2017 is artificial intelligence technology. Gartner pointed out that artificial intelligence will become the most destructive technology in the next 10 years, mainly due to the remarkable advances in computational power, irrelevant data sets, and deep neural networks. Plug in the "wings" of artificial intelligence AI, people can solve problems beyond imagination based on data.
In the field of artificial intelligence, Gartner is concerned that intelligent robots are at the peak of rapid growth, and that in the coming years, the propaganda and expectations surrounding intelligent robots will continue to grow. Gartner pointed out that in the past few years, Amazon's robotics company plans to deploy 10,000 robots to complete customer orders; Google acquired multiple robotics companies; RethinkRobotics launched Baxter and Sawyer, can work with human employees; 2016, Hilton, Hotel rooms such as Westin are also starting to use service robots. Gartner believes that these are the trends that intelligent robots will shine.
Machine learning is also at the peak of rapid growth. Gartner proposes that machine learning will present a large number of commercial and social scenarios in the areas of automation, pharmaceutical research, customer relationship management, supply chain optimization, predictive maintenance, operational effectiveness, anti-fraud, automated driving, and resource optimization.
Also in the global fast-growing period is the virtual assistant technology, promoted by the US technology giants such as Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft, and Facebook, virtual assistant technology has become the first application of artificial intelligence that can be used by ordinary people.
The Gartner report states that thousands of suppliers are exploring applications in deep learning, such as computer vision, conversational systems, and bioinformatics. Researchers are constantly publishing amazing new papers on this topic. Hardware manufacturers are stepping up to deliver new, deep neural network-trained high-performance algorithms (deep neural network algorithms, DNNs). In the future, on the scientific data platform, the function of deep learning will become easier to obtain. It is estimated that by 2018, 80% of data scientists' standard is deep learning.
Microsoft changed its "AI priority"
Sheng Linghai, vice president of research at Gartner, told the First Financial reporter: “Companies will decide whether to invest in these new technologies based on the maturity and location of these technologies.â€
Specifically, companies are roughly divided into three categories: A, B, and C. Large companies such as Intel, such as Intel Corp., will enter a new technology when any new technology emerges (a triggering period for the birth of technology), which will affect The trend of the entire technology curve. Type B companies are fast followers. For example, Huawei, Lenovo, etc., will take a wait-and-see attitude first, and immediately follow the investment during the peak period of speculation. Type C companies are ordinary companies, and because they do not want to bear too much risk, they will choose to invest again after the technology becomes mature.
The world’s first-tier technology companies have begun to collectively deploy artificial intelligence, including Apple, Amazon, Google, and Facebook. The last one to join this battle is Microsoft. In Microsoft's latest annual financial report, artificial intelligence is listed as one of the company's top priorities. This is new to Microsoft. In the past, Microsoft's main business was mobile and cloud services.
In Microsoft’s annual financial report, the first mention of six items involving artificial intelligence was not mentioned in one of last year’s financial reports. According to Microsoft, "Our strategic vision is to compete and grow by building first-class platforms and production services for smart clouds, and to instill wisdom into AI." Microsoft's presentation of "mobile and cloud services first" last year has been replaced.
Although cloud services are still the most important revenue source for Microsoft today, it is clear that Satya Nadella has been focusing on artificial intelligence.
Microsoft has acquired artificial intelligence startups including Maluuba and Swiftkey, and has established a formal artificial intelligence research group that will focus on AI development and other forward-looking research and development work in the future, covering infrastructure, services, applications, and search for.
Last month, Microsoft announced that it will build artificial intelligence chips for the new HololensAR device. Microsoft's next plan is to enable its cloud users to speed up the implementation of actual artificial intelligence tasks next year, including image recognition, massive data processing, and the use of machine learning algorithms to predict customer buying patterns.
Doug Burger, a distinguished engineer at Microsoft Research, said: "We are seriously advancing artificial intelligence. Our goal is to be the first place in the field of artificial intelligence cloud."
IBM's Watson failed?
In response to Microsoft's entry into the artificial intelligence war, Shenglinghai told First Financial reporter: "If Microsoft can promote such hardware as the industry standard, then its subsequent software algorithms and artificial intelligence cloud services can be more stable, and Microsoft can The hardware platform will serve as a gateway to future software cloud services such as artificial intelligence, and will promote their various new technologies and services through this platform."
It is hard to say whether Microsoft can "postfire" but it may not be the first to reach the end first. IBM, one of the earliest AI players, is betting on artificial intelligence Watson, and expects to rely on Watson to help IBM achieve more commercialization in medical and other fields.
In January last year, IBM CEO Luo Ruilan announced at the CES Consumer Electronics Show that IBM will become a cloud platform company for cognitive solutions. Watson is the core protagonist in this transitional goal. However, IBM's transformational road appears to have encountered a bottleneck. The company recently announced its financial report that revenue has declined for 21 consecutive quarters.
James Kisner, an analyst at Wall Street investment bank Jefferies, said after the publication of the IBM financial report: “While the Watson platform is one of the most complete platforms at present, in the field of artificial intelligence, IBM has lost to other opponents.â€
IBM's research and development of artificial intelligence has a first-mover advantage, and from the perspective of investment, in recent years, IBM has invested in Watson as the main line of investment projects.
These investments include Explorys, an analytics company that can view 50 million US patient cases, Phytel, which provides data analysis for doctors, Truven, a medical data company, and Merge Healthcare, a provider of medical imaging and clinical systems. According to incomplete statistics, the acquisition of these companies cost IBM over 4 billion U.S. dollars, which is equivalent to twice the net profit of IBM in the previous quarter.
Watson's commercial attempts to hit the wall also led the market to reflect more on the field of artificial intelligence. At the same time, it also shows that the earlier it is not involved in an emerging technology, it will certainly have an advantage. Consulting firm Forrester said: "The biggest challenge IBM has encountered at this stage is how to better leverage the synergies between AI and infrastructure, data integration, and professional services." Actually, as a global leader in super large Enterprises, IBM's transformation from traditional business to digital business itself is very challenging.
IBM also mentioned Watson specifically in its second-quarter earnings report. IBM said: "Watson is continuing to expand globally, and cognitive intelligence has global opportunities, not just in central cities such as New York, Boston, or Silicon Valley. Sen's opportunities cannot be limited to these places."
Coincidentally, last month, China also released the “New Generation Artificial Intelligence Development Plan.†In this regard, IBM’s Distinguished Engineer and Chief Technology Officer of Greater China’s Hardware Systems Division Li Yonghui told CBN’s reporter: “Many people are biased towards artificial intelligence. Research companies will benefit, including companies that provide infrastructure for artificial intelligence, such as GPUs, FPGAs, Internet of Things companies, companies that include cloud computing services, and traditional companies that provide artificial intelligence solutions for products and services. Of course, some start-up companies will also benefit. In the process, the Chinese government will also benefit from the improvement of the overall industry level."
Shenglinghai told the First Financial reporter: “Artificial intelligence is still on the road. IBM used to sell processes, services, and consultations. There are great commonalities between corporate customers, but after entering the age of artificial intelligence, it is completely another environment. We believe that artificial intelligence is an opportunity for small companies, and companies that provide AI cloud services will get a lot of demand, because small companies will not build their own high-performance AI computers. So, Google and IBM are all Develop new chips."
According to Sheng Linghai, Google's TPU chips are mainly used for machine learning acceleration services to serve artificial intelligence companies, and IBM is also developing neural network computing chips. He said: "The new architecture of the chip can be more complex artificial intelligence training. But where does the data come from? Alibaba, Google and these companies are big players in the data."
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