LED status and outlook

NPD DisplaySearch Shanghai Office, April 13, 2012 -- Recently, Taiwan's oil and electricity industry has seen double growth, making the energy-saving industry a hot topic again, mainly in the solar and LED industries. Compared with solar energy, LEDs are active energy-saving products from the perspective of energy conservation. The use of solar energy is limited by the geographical environment and the intensity of sunlight, and cannot provide overall energy conservation. In particular, the narrow area of ​​dense people in Taiwan is not conducive to solar energy installation. Therefore, the best energy-saving method in Taiwan is LED. As a next-generation lighting LED, its luminous efficiency has been increasing year by year and the price has been reduced accordingly. Coupled with the importance of governments in energy conservation and carbon reduction, it is expected that LEDs will gradually replace existing light sources in the near future.

Looking at the LED development process, since 2002, LED has begun to penetrate small-size displays (mainly used in mobile phones) and reached its peak in 2005. However, as the efficiency increases, the number of LEDs used in the unit display also gradually decreases. When the growth of mobile phones becomes saturated, the total demand for LEDs begins to decline. At this point, the LED starts to look for the next application: a medium-sized display. With the constant improvement of cost performance, LED's demand for medium-size displays has reached saturation in 2007, and LED demand has begun to decline as previously small size. The LED began to enter another application: a laptop monitor, and it started to enter TV monitor applications at the end of 2009. With the widespread use of LEDs in large-size displays, the performance of LEDs has been increased to more than 100 lumens per watt, and the price has also rapidly declined. This trend has provided incomparable boost to the development of LED lighting applications.

Figure I. Application of LEDs in Different Products, 2005-2014 Source: NPD DisplaySearch Technology and Process Trend Report

In 2009, the sales of LED TVs were higher than expected, which led to a rapid increase in LED demand. However, the supply side has not been able to keep up with the pace. Therefore, there is a shortage of supply. This heat has allowed the LED factory to enjoy a good time, but it also makes LED plants over-optimistic about future demand. None of the factories actively expanded their production from 2009 to 2010. The production capacity was gradually opened in the second half of 2010, but it was found that the overall demand was not as expected. The main reason is that end-product manufacturers are mainly to reduce the number of LED chips used to reduce costs. With the continuous improvement of efficiency, the reduction in the number of LED chips is an inevitable trend. The global economy is poor and the market is not growing as expected. Therefore, the supply and demand of LEDs began to reverse in the second half of 2010, and the phenomenon of oversupply began to become severe, even with DRAM, Display and Solar being classified as "3D1S".

Figure II Q1 11-Q2 12 LEDs for backlighting and lighting applications Supply and demand Source: NPD DisplaySearch Quarterly LED Supply/Demand Market Forecast Report

The LED industry has experienced a slump in 2011 and both are expecting 2012 to be able to escape the haze of low-priced direct-view TV and lighting. However, due to LED and traditional light sources still have a certain price difference, and in terms of light source characteristics, users need to be familiar with and adapt to the time, so at present, the application of LED in lighting is still mainly project-based or marked, and it really needs to enter. General lighting also needs government policy coordination and user acceptance.

Therefore, in view of the 2012 LED demand will still be based on the application of the display, in which low-cost direct-down LED TV will be the most exciting new force. The design of the low-price direct type LED TV is mainly to achieve the cost optimization by using a direct-type luminescence (without a light guide plate) and a secondary lens at an appropriate thickness. The price is aiming at a zero spread with the CCFL in order to increase the speed of replacing the CCFL. This product has already been on the market and the market reaction is very positive. In 2012, low-price direct LED TVs will have a good performance. 2012 will be a key year for the LED industry. It is expected that under the efforts of the industry and the government, it will be out of the shadow of the "four major tragic events."

More LED applications in the display backlighting and lighting market production strategies and product development direction will be available on April 19-20, two days in Taipei International Convention Center held in 2012 DisplaySearch Taiwan flat panel display seminar has an in-depth trend. This year's theme – Flat Panel Display Product Strategy, Supply Chain Collaboration, Revolutionary Applications, Agenda Coverage Strategy Deployment, Mobile PC and Cloud Development, Touch Panel Applications, LED Lighting Market and Backlight Module Market, Flat Panel Display and TV Development Towards other exciting topics, not only are companies with outstanding performance in various fields, but also rich first-hand information and professional opinions and analysis. The conference is also an excellent occasion for expanding contacts, expanding industry knowledge, listening to different opinions and conceiving strategies. It is an annual event that you absolutely cannot miss! If you would like to participate in this seminar, you are welcome to register early. The participation fee includes two days of meetings and data (including lecture notes and CD-ROMs), on-site speeches and intimate preparations for simultaneous Chinese-English translation. For more details, please refer to the event website. Or contact DisplaySearch Taipei Office for information.