Writing this title, AI is a revolution, feeling like a vulgar.
Many words in the new century have depreciated, such as experts, such as beauty, such as revolution. Now, adding a wing to your sanitary napkin is also a great revolution. Which marketing company is not a revolution every day, but also the word, the word is not enough low?
But I really can't think of a more embarrassing word. In fact, here, the word "revolution", I am against the standard, the industrial revolution of the eighteenth century.
What happened to the industrial revolution? Huge social changes, let's see what is specific.
1. The agricultural population has dropped sharply, and a large number of people have entered the industry from agriculture and urbanization has risen.
2. The competitiveness of top people, from land ownership to capital control. Capitalists have replaced landlords as the dominant class of society.
3. The productivity is greatly released, from manpower execution to machine execution.
4. The requirements for knowledge are improved, and basic knowledge is required to enter the city for work. The transition from an illiterate society to the popularization of secondary education.
5. With the progress of industry and urbanization, the service industry has risen.
6. To enhance productivity and highlight energy issues.
Traditional industry is manual decision-making, machine execution; and AI's goal is that machine-aided decision-making, machine execution, if pure machine decision-making, may be premature, but machine-assisted decision-making is now relatively common. So what happens next?
Alternative role, AI's substitution role for existing jobs. In addition to the substitution effect on the industry, there will be a certain substitution effect on the service industry.
Let's look at the progress of AIAfter the driverlessness is mature, the role of the driver will basically be replaced. How many employed people are the light taxi drivers?
At present, many automated factories, such as some high-end car production workshops, or some other intelligent production platforms, have fewer and fewer workers.
Amazon showed amazon go some time ago, the unattended checkout system has started trial operation, the cashier's job prospects are worrying, vaguely remember that there is a news that there are millions of supermarket cashiers in the US, I have not verified this number, but This type of position is a typical low-end job opportunity.
Nowadays, there are restaurants that have realized the service of automatic ordering and automatic meal delivery. Of course, it is not mature enough. But what is the population of the catering service staff? What is the probability of being replaced by machines in the future?
I have seen a company in Shenzhen before, doing sensors for domestic freight trains, and doing automatic data collection and reporting on the train position and status. This alone saved the Ministry of Railways tens of thousands of manpower costs, and the accuracy of the data and The timeliness has been greatly improved. I have also mentioned a new data monitoring technology in my article. The train sensor automatically detects the rail deformation and early warning during the journey. Once the technology is mature, as far as China is concerned, for the daily inspection of the road maintenance road, Will replace huge human expenses. It is also more reliable and greatly reduces accidents and failure rates in railway operations.
The scene of the science fiction "Beijing Folding" has actually happened. The low-end type of work has been replaced by intelligent technology. There is really no technical threshold.
I will summarize the changes that AI may bring.1. The working class will be greatly reduced, similar to the previous peasant class. The job opportunities of a large number of workers were replaced by AI, similar to the previous agricultural population being replaced by agricultural machinery. Instead, the number of technical jobs that need to be created and designed will be more abundant.
2. The focus of competition shifts from capital to algorithm and technology. We have now seen Bill Gates, Zuckerberg, Musk, Ma Huateng, Lei Jun and other IT newcomers occupying the rich list.
3. From manpower decision-making to machine-assisted decision making, and ultimately machine decision making.
4. Further improve the knowledge requirements of the employed. Being able to do the job that the machine is not up to, this goal is getting higher and higher!
5. Changes in management tools, from disciplinary constraints to creativity incentives.
Traditional industries emphasize the efficiency of personnel, and discipline is the guarantee of overall efficiency and the guarantee of enterprise quality. But we say that people's discipline, quality control ability can match the machine? So when fully automated production becomes mainstream, we emphasize the discipline of employees, and the value and meaning no longer exist. What we demand is human creativity, the ability and value of those tasks that can accomplish AI.
This is where google, facebook can never apply the traditional enterprise management model.
There are still many so-called management experts who try to prove the power of traditional enterprise management, and try to use the management advantages of traditional enterprises to enhance the sustainable competitiveness of emerging technology companies. To be honest, this is really a thing of the past. A company that loses its creativity has no future. In the AI ​​era, many traditional enterprises with management advantages will be ruthlessly eliminated. This revolution, just beginning, may not be realized by many companies.
The social changes brought about by AI have already begun, and the change of job opportunities has already begun. But in which we will feel less, and only when the timeline is stretched, we will realize that we are in great change. . How many programmers did China have 20 years ago? How many? This profession has grown from scratch, from extremely rare to very mainstream, and it is really a very short time.
After twenty years, is there a driver? Is there a cashier? Is there a restaurant waiter? These are all worth imagining.
Trump said that he hopes that the manufacturing industry will return to the United States. In fact, I think the possibility of returning is very big. After all, the US energy price advantage is great, which is a big plus; but the question is whether the return of manufacturing represents work. Opportunity to return? This is not a concept. Last year, the concept of Industry 4.0 was very hot. Sun Zheng said that Japan would rely on robots to regain market leadership. In fact, it is one thing. The manufacturing industry with AI as the core technology will replace the traditional manufacturing industry. Compared with the traditional manufacturing industry, the labor cost is almost negligible. The developed countries hope to overcome the disadvantage of labor cost through technological advantages and thus rebuild the competitive advantage. But those red-necked ones who have read only the middle school, I am sorry, the era has already eliminated them, and the good days will not come back.
Some big Vs don't take it for AI. They think that this is the speculation of some investors and businesses. Take history as an example. If the old work is gone, there will naturally be new job opportunities. There is no need to worry about the whole day; but the key here. Yes, if your knowledge and abilities do not match, new job opportunities will have nothing to do with you; can a coachman be a driver? If he is willing to learn, it may be okay, but when the driver first appeared, people would not tend to hire a coachman; an illiterate farmer, can he go to the factory after losing the land? If he is willing to learn, it is okay, but the factory will not tend to cultivate an illiterate. He will give priority to those who can read and read. So in the AI ​​era, a secondary school student who has general operational skills in a traditional factory can go to an emerging smart factory to work? If he is willing to learn, it is okay, but people will give priority to graduate students with programming and debugging skills. Yes, as far as humans are concerned, there may be job opportunities. The problem is that the group of people who have been smashed by history probably have no chance.
Recognizing this change is vital to our future development, to our children's education, and to our national movement. This is not a word game, nor a possible billion-dollar. Business story, this is a social change that can be comparable to the industrial revolution, we have seen the changes in the social class; Trump has just talked with Silicon Valley, although both sides are somewhat reluctant, but the most powerful power in the world remains A close cooperation with these technologies is needed. I personally think that the leading position of the United States today is not based on Wall Street, not an aircraft carrier, but Silicon Valley. Of course, I know that you will say that Wall Street is very important. The aircraft carrier is more important. But without the rise and strong support of Silicon Valley, Wall Street in the United States is likely to have become a Japanese. If the aircraft carrier is important, we can see the military and the military. What is the Soviet Union’s decades of hard-resisting Soviet Union?
Look at the news, China, the United States is developing the sixth generation of fighters, what is the core technology of the sixth generation fighters? AI technology! A manned fighter can command multiple UAV cluster joint operations, combining manual decision making and AI technology. Under the guidance of AI technology, the gap between military advanced and backward will become the existence of crushing. Making full use of AI's automatic weapons will crush the human-operated weapons, just like the weapons are mature and then crushed into cold weapons. Firearms go from maturity to maturity and take hundreds of years, but the maturity of AI probably won't take so long.
Therefore, there is a saying that programmers are about to dominate the world. Many people think this is a very fun statement, or a self-deprecating stalk. Then I seriously said that I believe this is true.
Well, for the time being, there is no need for excessive association. Will AI replace human beings to rule the world and will not destroy human beings? This topic can be burned, but I have no intention to discuss such issues today. Just saying that we can see, a lot of job opportunities are being replaced; this is obviously visible, the social class will change, this is already happening; capitalism will be replaced by intellectualism, this is happening, but we still Not used to it. The educational demands of employment are getting higher and higher, which we saw but have not yet understood.
In addition, the importance of information security is growing, and hackers will one day threaten more than terrorists. In fact, nowadays, for some political central figures, hackers are more terrible than terrorists.
Finally, why do I have to write such an article, it seems that I have finished reading it, but I am doing it. What should everyone do?
Twelve years ago, I first met Yu Jun. He told me that the search engine is a revolution and a revolution in human knowledge acquisition ability, just like printing. At the time, the mainstream view was that search engines were a business model for traffic monetization; or, search engines were a powerful query technology. Therefore, many giants have missed the search, looked down on the search, and looked at the search. Even Zhou Hongyi, whose product concept is so strong, did not correctly understand the value and potential of the search engine.
I later turned over the online record about Yu Jun. Fifteen years ago, at the beginning of the new century, Sina search forum discussion, Microsoft was going to search (MSN search, not the current bing), everyone thought that Microsoft Technology is so powerful, subverting google is just around the corner. But only Yu Jun insisted that Microsoft did not really understand the search, and it was not the same as Google. Why is Yu Jun right? This is the power of vision and pattern.
A new technology, a new product, what is the change to human beings, what is the change in society, what changes do you see, in order to know where the value of this thing is, rather than simply making a financial template Simple revenue model. Wall Street can't lead the future, they will only follow the mover, don't make this relationship wrong.
With a vision, we will make the right judgment, from the workplace to the planning of personal skills development.
Jinhu Weibao Trading Co., Ltd , https://www.weibaoe-cigarette.com