Wafer production is expected to increase by 19% in 2013

NPD Solarbuzz's latest quarterly Polysilicon and Wafer Supply Chain Quarterly report shows that wafer production fell 15% in 2012 and is expected to increase by 19% over 30GW in 2013, returning to 2011 levels. The industry's average silicon wafer utilization rate is expected to remain below 60%, but the market share is concentrated in the leading manufacturers. At the same time, the price of silicon wafers has stopped falling, but it has not apparently recovered, so wafer makers still have to overcome the challenges of profitability.

It is expected that the polysilicon wafers will continue to dominate the silicon wafer market in the short-to-medium term, but high-efficiency solar cell modules based on single-crystal silicon wafers are still favored by downstream projects with limited installation space, and because they are more efficient and priced at higher prices than standard polycrystalline modules. In particular, the rapid increase in market demand in Japan has also increased the demand for high-efficiency single crystal modules.

NPD Solarbuzz analyst team deputy general Charles Annis said: “From the policy incentives for the Japanese PV market, the demand for the Japanese PV market will exceed the global market share of 10% in 2013. Due to the strong demand for roof installation projects in the Japanese market, large-scale Ground installation projects are limited by land resources, so the Japanese market has become a major driver of demand for monocrystalline modules."

However, to increase the market share of monocrystalline silicon wafers in comparison with polycrystalline silicon wafers, it is also necessary to improve the production of monocrystalline silicon rods and further increase the module efficiency. Charles Annis added: “Polysilicon chip manufacturers are constantly improving the process of ingot casting and developing new high-efficiency polysilicon wafers. The efficiency of high-efficiency polysilicon wafers currently sold by leading wafer manufacturers is already close to 18%, which is equivalent to the efficiency of single crystal wafers. The lower limit also sustains the competitiveness of polycrystalline products."

In the long term, N-type mono-crystalline silicon wafers and enhanced mono-crystalline silicon wafers based on high-efficiency cell processes have the potential to reduce the total cost per module component and increase the growth rate of the monocrystalline silicon wafer market. Assuming these technologies are successful, NPD Solarbuzz expects that the growth rate of single-crystal battery production will be faster than that of polycrystalline batteries in 2015, gaining more end-use applications and higher market share.