Perspectives on both sides of VR: the prosperity of one hundred billion yuan output and the difficulty of rampant cottage

VR e-commerce, VR video, VR live streaming, VR medical care... As if any industry plugged in the wings of “VR”, it could quickly reach the air outlet.

A few days ago, the latest report released by market research firm IDC estimated that by 2020, the global augmented reality (AR) and virtual reality (VR) market revenue will be expanded from the current 5.2 billion US dollars to 162 billion US dollars. This means that the global AR/VR market will grow at an annual rate of 181.3% over the next five years.

In the face of this blue ocean, in addition to the frequent deployment of giants, domestic hardware companies have also stepped into this field in order to expect a share of the VR mass commercial explosion. However, the reporter visited several digital stores in Shanghai and noticed that the price of VR equipment ranges from 300 yuan to more than 8000 yuan. Apart from brands such as Sony, HTC, and Samsung, other unknown brand products such as VR glasses, VR boxes, etc. Also interspersed with it, the cottage rampant.

According to a number of VR practitioners interviewed by reporters, the development of the industry is still in its infancy. Some inexpensive cottage equipment distorts the understanding of VR in terms of design, details, materials, and comfort. In the last year or two, it will be at the stage of user education and education. After that, the industry will usher in a big reshuffle. The real outbreak is expected to be around 2018.

The shackles of the cottage

Every year, Shanghai welcomes a number of industry exhibitions. In the field of science and technology, the most notable is the CES Consumer Electronics Show and ChinaJoy. The former is based on the hardware terminal and the latter is the theme of digital entertainment.

The reporter observed and observed in two exhibitions that VR has become the protagonist. Perhaps, from the application point of view is also nothing wrong. From the perspective of product categories seen on the scene, VR is divided into three categories: VR head display (+ host), glasses (+ mobile phone), and one machine (independent use). The host side is represented by Sony's PSVR and HTC's Vive. The mobile terminal is represented by Google's Cardboard and Samsung's Gear VR.

Due to the lower cost, Storm Video and LeTV's VR products are based on glasses. However, 21st Century Business Herald reporter discovered after experience that VR glasses can still be used to watch static images. Once they move, people will feel dizzy. A technical engineer at Sony Corporation told 21st Century Business Herald that VR technology is not a simple display plus a box. Some cheap VR glasses on the market have only developed a box, and they have not been optimized for hardware and software. The user's experience is poor, causing so-called dizziness.

In addition, some VR industry sources also revealed that almost all domestic VR hardware manufacturers currently have almost no independent research and development core technologies. They are all looking for core databases from Oculus, Samsung Gear VR and other foreign VR devices, and then do their own adjustment and change.

When 21st Century Business Herald reporter searched for “VR glasses” on Taobao.com, he also found that quotes ranging from 9.9 yuan to tens of dollars were everywhere. A box with a plastic lenticular lens and a mobile phone could put it. The smartphone becomes a VR viewer. It can be said that the cottage products lead to a vicious circle of the industry. On the one hand, cheap and inferior products make VR value difficult to be recognized. On the other hand, Sony, HTC and other products let users feel that it is not worth spending so much money. From this point of view, VR has a long way to go for ordinary users and families.

In an interview with a 21st Century Business Herald reporter, Zhang Yi, the chairman of Yimu Consulting, also believes that the market potential and the enthusiasm of manufacturers can hardly conceal the embarrassing situation of virtual reality equipment. From the point of view of user contact, it is still far away from popularity, and the user's dependence on it is not strong. For domestic manufacturers who scramble for fear, more is to earn hot money and quick money. “The industry also needs to precipitate and reshuffle, and after a big brand of products is introduced, a unified standard and quality system will be formed, and these cottage products will be phased out and the value of product innovation will appear.”

Scene push

Although VR is currently only a handful of geeks, it does not prevent all kinds of imaginary scenarios around it from appearing.

In addition to popular games and videos, e-commerce also uses VR to introduce new games. In March of this year, Taobao released the “buy+” plan, officially launching a lab dedicated to the exploration and development of cutting-edge technologies such as VR/AR. Not long ago, Taobao selected 72 platform sellers on the “Taobao Festival of Creativity” to use VR technology to transform the product into a virtual reality model and realize the experience of simulating a mall shopping at home with VR.

In addition to VR shopping, VR payment has also become a new boom. In an interview with a 21st Century Business Herald reporter, the person concerned with the Ant Financial Service disclosed that the VR payment technology VR Pay, which was developed by the company, will be announced by the end of September this year, and it can complete payment under 3D scenarios within the application. In the VR consumer experience scene currently publicly displayed, after the user places orders in the virtual store, he also takes off the helmet and pays for the reality, resulting in a bad experience. "We are developing a more secure iris technology that will also be applied to payment scenarios."

This means that, whether in a VR game or VR e-commerce scenario, the user may only need to nod to complete the payment. However, whether shopping or education or medical treatment, these scenarios are subject to the equipment manufacturers. Ninth City CEO Zhu Jun said in an interview with a 21st Century Business Herald reporter that the biggest flash point of VR was still in the video and gaming field. VR significantly improved the user experience in the game and the willingness to pay was high. "Only mature profitability and liquidity models can make the industry go further."

Even the most favored game industry is facing a shortage of content. "If only a piece of hardware, a game is not, such a device is no one wants." Oda Tianbo, executive vice president of Sony Interactive Entertainment Asia, previously told reporters. The game content that comes with it is also the core competitiveness of Sony VR products.

It is reported that due to differences in the game approval system at home and abroad, only the games that have passed the approval can be listed. At present, Sony PS VR has 14 games reviewed. On the one hand, Sony actively introduced more games to China, and on the other hand, it also supported home-made games on the PS VR platform.

Although the VR industry encountered many difficulties in the early stages of development, it did not affect the pursuit of capital. The "China Virtual Reality Industry Application Research Report 2016" released by the Analysys Think Tank shows that the amount of investment and financing related to VR content in China has increased from 35 million yuan in 2014 to 240 million yuan in 2015.

The preliminary statistics of the reporter found that in the A-share market, there are already more than 60 listed companies involved in virtual reality technology, and once detached, relevant stocks will usher in a surge. In Zhang Yi's view, the VR industry cannot be monopolized and closed, and the virtual ecosystem of virtual reality in the hardware, content, interaction, and community is forming. The quantity and quality of VR content will be qualitatively improved next year. Content distribution Will develop independently, or will become a new industry entrance.

"It is recommended that hardware manufacturers avoid VR hardware homogenization, aim at market segments, improve technical capabilities, and improve content around hardware." Zhang Yi believes that by 2020, China's VR market will exceed RMB 55 billion.


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