CEC: Uneven Electricity Distribution Expects Grid Break

On July 26, CEC held the 2013 China Power Theme Day and the “Good and Small” Cultural Exchange with the theme of “Beautiful China, Green Power”. CEC released 2013 national electricity supply and demand situation analysis and forecast. report. In the first half of the year, the electricity consumption of the entire society increased by 5.1% year-on-year, and the growth rate fell slightly year-on-year. The installed capacity of power generation increased by 9.3% year-on-year, and the power supply capacity was sufficient. In the second half of the year, it is estimated that the country will newly build 58 million kilowatts of power generation capacity, and will have an annual installed capacity of about 90 million kilowatts. Among them, renewable energy installed capacity increased by about 47 million kilowatts, 40 million kilowatts of new thermal power and 2.22 million kilowatts of nuclear power. It is estimated that the capacity of power generation equipment in the country by the end of 2013 will reach around 1.23 billion kilowatts, and it is expected to become the world's largest country with the largest installed capacity of power generation, including 360 million kilowatts of renewable energy, 860 million kilowatts of thermal power and 14.61 million kilowatts of nuclear power. CEC predicts that the installed capacity of China's power generation equipment is expected to rank first in the world at the end of the year. It is recommended that the price of thermal power not be lowered by CEC in the next few years, and that during the summer of the second half of the year due to high temperatures, the growth rate of electricity consumption in the entire society will be greater. The growth rate increased by 5.0%-7.0% in the second half of the year and 5.0%-6.0% in the year-on-year period. It is estimated that the country will have installed 1.23 billion kilowatts of power generation by the end of the year, the annual utilization time of power generation equipment will be about 4500 hours, and the utilization of thermal power equipment will be about 4900 hours. In the second half of the year, the balance of electricity supply and demand in the country as a whole is balanced, and the northeast and northwest regions have more abundant power supply capacity. Some provinces in North China and East China are tightly balanced during peak summer peak hours.

Solve the problem of surplus water in the northeast and abandoned water in the northwest
The CEC pointed out that the northeastern region has long-term surplus of power supply capacity, low utilization hours of power generation, and intensified business difficulties. It is recommended that the scale of power start-up including thermal power and wind power be strictly controlled during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period to centralize the existing Supply capacity.

“The price of heat in Northeast China has been low for a long time, and the phenomenon of inversion of coal-heat prices is more common. With the cancellation of key contract coal and the increase in regional coal prices, heating companies have suffered more losses,” said Ouyang Changyu, deputy secretary-general of CEC. It is recommended that relevant government departments re-assess the heat price in accordance with the principle of cost-plus for areas with large heat losses, and implement the coal heat price linkage mechanism; provide financial subsidy to heat supply enterprises with severe heat price upside down and serious losses, so as to ease business operations difficult."

CEC suggested that it is necessary to speed up the establishment of peak tariffs and other ancillary service pricing mechanisms, use economic measures to mobilize the enthusiasm of generating units for peaking and frequency regulation, and promote the consumption of green energy.

“We must attach great importance to and resolve the problems of the southwestern hydropower bases in Yunnan and Sichuan that are likely to cause a large number of abandonment due to the saturation of the capacity of existing outbound passageways. We will promptly approve the plans and start the export route for the southwest hydropower base to accelerate Xiluodu- The construction of AC/DC UHV cross-regional access corridors such as Guangxi and the middle reaches of the Jinsha River in western Zhejiang, to ensure that the outbound channels will be put into operation on schedule. In addition, provinces with serious abandoned water should appropriately control the development of wind power, solar power, etc.” At the same time, Ouyang Changyu once again stressed the need to resolve the problem of abandoned water in the Southwest.

“The construction of the southwest hydropower channel is lagging behind. South ChinaNet may be divided into 2-3 synchronous networks in the future. However, the current mode of operation is the most economic and safe.” Ouyang Changyu told this reporter.

Ouyang Changyu said that the relevant state agencies should speed up the formulation of the “12th Five-Year Plan” for the power industry. After the approval of the State Council, the projects that are not publicly announced will be subject to approval by the central and local governments.

“The National Energy Administration should link the scale of wind power development with the national financial subsidies and protect the interests of investors. The planning must clarify the scale, layout and consumption of wind power; in addition, the supporting power grid should be linked to the layout of wind power, and the power grid project, peaking and frequency modulation power supply. The development of wind power bases has its own sequence, and it is necessary to realize the convergence of time so that wind power projects and power grid projects can be simultaneously approved and put into production. Otherwise, the day of production is the day of wind disuse, said Ouyang Changyu to this reporter.

“The electric power industry must achieve a moderate advancement, coordinate the power supply and power grid construction, accelerate the market-oriented reform of electricity prices and the construction of the electric power market to meet the requirements for optimal deployment of electric power resources nationwide.” In this regard, Sun Yucai also stated at the same time.

“We must strengthen the overall planning of electric power and the planning of special projects, and the scale of wind power, solar energy, distributed energy, and natural gas must be directly linked to the total national financial subsidies and balance each other. In addition, on the basis of unified planning, project approvals should be abolished to give full play to them. The role of the market mechanism, through the open tender to select the main project investment and determine the power generation capacity of the Internet," Ouyang Changyu further said.

Refining coal and electricity mutual protection price should not be lowered

In view of the current coal and electricity mutual protection policies and the call for lowering the price of thermal power in many provinces, CEC believes that it is necessary to continue to strictly implement the “Guidance Opinions on Deepening the Reform of Coal-fired Power Market” of the State Council and to effectively remediate the “coal” practiced by some provinces. The policy of mutual protection of electricity, to reduce administrative intervention, while continuing to implement full use of "two resources, two markets" strategy.

"Restricting administrative interventions such as imported coal and coal and electricity mutual protection are not conducive to the allocation of resources in the market." The former State Electricity Regulatory Commission Huazhong Electric Power Supervision Bureau told this reporter that "China's total coal resources are limited, limiting the import coal policy is For example, in Henan coal and electricity mutual protection, coal enterprises in Henan Province are provincial enterprises, and more than 60% of electric power enterprises are central enterprises. Coal and electricity mutual protection reinforces the provincial barriers and violates the law of market supply and demand.”

“With the slowdown in the price of thermal coal, the thermal power industry has changed from a serious loss in the past to a profit in the current period. At the same time, due to the downward growth in demand for electricity from the entire society, the utilization hours of thermal power equipment has decreased, and the marginal profit of enterprises has declined. Denitrification and other environmental protection reforms require relatively large investments, and the country's subsidized electricity prices can not offset the increase in costs.” Ouyang Changyu analysis, “Since coal and electricity linkage prices in previous years were far from being in place, thermal power companies have a large number of historical debts, and five major power generation groups The debt ratio is over 80%, which is much higher than the SASAC warning line."

The CEC believes that the coal price changes are different in different regions, and coal prices may even be adjusted by coal enterprises in some areas (such as the coal price requested by Long Coal Group will increase by RMB 90/ton from the price at the end of last year, and similar in other regions). The difference in the actual coal price that is actually enjoyed is quite different.

“We should give thermal power companies a chance to rest and recuperate in order to restore the sustainable development capability of the thermal power industry. The country should not lower the price of electricity in recent years,” said Ouyang Changyu.