Polysilicon 50% gap pressure

Due to the tight supply of polysilicon, the price has doubled in half a year, and the industry has called for a loose voice of “No. 38”.

“No.38 Document” refers to the “Some Opinions on Suppressing Part of Overcapacity and Duplicate Construction and Leading the Healthy Development of Industries” issued by the State Council in September 2009. This document places polysilicon on the black list of “overcapacity” and stops the expansion of polysilicon production projects. Approval.

In the near future, signs of loosening "No. 38" have appeared. “At the beginning of October, the National Development and Reform Commission approved the technical reform project for polysilicon production line of Jiangsu Zhongneng 3 billion yuan, which was previously put on hold at the National Development and Reform Commission due to the “No. 38 document.” On November 1, one was approaching. An informed source from Jiangsu Zhongneng told this reporter that Jiangsu Zhongneng will add about 3,000 tons of new production capacity.

At the beginning of May this year, the world polysilicon spot price still hovered around US$50/kg, but by October it had stabilized at a high of US$100/kg. The industry even predicts that polysilicon will rise to US$120-150/kg in 2011. Reproduce the madness of 2007.

Yingli Green Energy, which is a typical representative of the entire industrial chain of the PV market, is more representative of the environment. “Now customers are asking me for components, and I'm looking for material suppliers to supply raw materials. Even companies with the most complete industrial chain feel that the industry is under pressure from the high tropical climate. The situation of many SMEs can be imagined.” Yingli Green Energy Miao Liansheng, chairman and chief executive officer, said frankly.

During the one-year period of the implementation of “No.38 Document”, new polysilicon projects and technological transformation projects have been suspended. Correspondingly, the output of downstream batteries and modules increased by more than 30% compared to the same period of last year. New projects and newcomers are also at the top of the list.

According to the data provided by the China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance, China's polysilicon production in the first half of the year has exceeded 18,000 tons, and the annual polysilicon production is expected to be around 40,000 tons. It is expected that China's solar-grade and electronic-grade polysilicon demand will be around 70,000 tons this year, which means that the gap will be nearly half.

The data released by the National Customs has, to a certain extent, corroborated the judgment of the China Photovoltaic Industry Alliance. Data show that China's imports of polysilicon in September 4,757 tons, an increase of 90.1%, from January to September total imports of 31,503 tons.

“This is the reality that the industry hopes to loosen the “No.38 document.” A person in charge of Luoyang Zhongsilia told reporters that even if the domestic production capacity is doubled, polysilicon needs to be imported for about several consecutive years, indicating that the industry There is a huge demand.

In fact, compared with the domestic silicon polysilicon project, there have been no breakthroughs, the international polysilicon seven plants have announced expansion plans. Japan's Tokuyama Chemical Co., Ltd. announced that it will build a 6,000-ton polysilicon plant in Malaysia at the end of this year; Germany’s WACKER also announced an expansion of production and recently purchased a silicon metal production base near Trondheim, Norway.

The aforementioned informed source told reporters that Jiangsu Zhongneng, the largest silicon material plant in China, will also purchase 6,000 tons next year; LDK, the second largest plant, is mainly for its own use, and the output that can be released is extremely limited; Sichuan Emei Factory and Luoyang Silicon also began to pull its own crystal; foreign countries, WACKER's long single row to 2012, OTC and Mitsubishi production most of the IC factory, "if there is no new project put into production next year, the polysilicon market is more tense."

“The loosening of “No.38 Document” does not mean changing, but adhering to the previous requirement that high-quality, low-cost polysilicon projects be allowed to be launched rather than across the board.” LDK, an executive at LDK believes that domestic high quality Polysilicon is scarce, and many projects previously set up by the National Development and Reform Commission have low-level redundant construction, low technical level, small single-line size, high power consumption, and projects that require cost competition with seven major international plants need to be promoted. Polysilicon project construction The cycle is about two years. At that time, the costs of the seven major international plants will fall even lower. "So we must focus on scale and cost from the beginning."

An executive from Jiangsu Zhongneng acknowledged to reporters that the National Development and Reform Commission’s approval of the company's technological transformation project is, to some extent, a large internationally competitive manufacturer. “Our third quarter cost can be $23.8/kg, The selling price is 51.7 US dollars/kg. If the new production cost cannot be aligned with the seven major international plants, it will not be competitive.

"Our next year, our silicon wafer is about 3.5G watts, the corresponding demand is about 2.5-2.6 million tons, and the polysilicon production is about 20,000 tons." The Jiangsu Zhongneng executive revealed that the company is currently planning to compete with WACKER, etc. Contact with the factory to purchase polysilicon raw materials. Domestic manufacturers temporarily do not consider, because "quality is still a gap, and the supply is not enough, if you want to purchase more than 5,000 tons, you need more than 20 manufacturers to supply together, it is unrealistic."