Which standard 4G license will the three major operators get? Except that China Mobile's answer must be "TD-LTE", China Telecom and China Unicom are still unclear. Recently, at the International Telecommunication Union Conference in Dubai, officials from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (hereinafter referred to as the "Ministry of Industry and Information Technology") revealed an important message: the TD-LTE frequency will reach 190MHz. This undoubtedly made the above problem suddenly clear.
The analysis generally believes that the frequency allocated by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology to the domestic 4G standard TD-LTE is far beyond imagination, which means that in addition to China Mobile, at least one more operator will use TD-LTE. The industry believes that, from the perspective of technology upgrades or from the perspective of supporting domestic standards, China Telecom's possibility of using TD-LTE is climbing sharply.
Spectrum setting super prediction
The quantity and quality of wireless spectrum resources are crucial to the development of 4G. So how much wireless spectrum resources will the domestic 4G standard TD-LTE be able to enjoy? The answer far exceeds the industry imagination. During the 2012 World Telecommunication Conference, at the "TD-LTE Technology and Spectrum Symposium", Xie Cun, deputy director of the Radio Administration Bureau of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, said that the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has decided to plan the 2500-2690Hz and 190MHz frequency resources of the 2.6GHz band as TD -The spectrum of LTE.
In view of the fact that TD-LTE has never been predicted to obtain such rich spectrum resources, the domestic communication industry was in an uproar as soon as the news came out. According to reporters, the 3G spectrum resources currently owned by China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom are 35MHz, 30MHz, and 30MHz, but a total of 95MHz. This means that the 190MHz TD-LTE 4G frequency is sufficient for all operators.
"The spectrum of TD-LTE will be as high as 190MHz in the future. Obviously it is not intended to be shared exclusively with an operator." An industry insider commented.
"Three on two" is a foregone conclusion
Now that there are so many TD-LTE frequencies, which operator will work side by side with China Mobile to build a TD-LTE network? The analysis believes that the possibility of China Telecom is extremely high.
Some technical experts believe that the current CDMA 3G network operated by China Telecom does not have a clear 4G upgrade path, which means that it can be upgraded not only to the FDD-LTE standard widely used overseas, but also to the Chinese standard TD-LTE. However, from the standpoint of supporting domestic standards, there is no reason for relevant departments to let China Telecom, an operator with a strong broadband fixed network, upgrade the FDD-LTE network.
Unlike China Telecom, China Unicom uses WCDMA in the 3G era, and the development towards 4G will inevitably upgrade to FDD-LTE. After the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology disclosed the TDD-LTE spectrum plan, there were rumors in the industry that China Unicom may be issued with FDD-LTE spectrum and resources.
"There are three types of 3G systems: TD-SCDMA, CDMA2000, and WCDMA, but the mature 4G system has only two options: TD-LTE or FDD-LTE." Zhang Yi, chairman of AiMedia Consulting, believes that at least two of the three major operators TD-LTE is a foregone conclusion, "The remaining variables are only a question of whether TD-LTE operators are two or three."
Pilot cities exceed 100 next year
"Although TD-LTE started slower than FDD-LTE, which is widely used internationally, its recent development has been very rapid." Yang Qun, chief analyst of Zhan Guo Ce Consulting, said that given China's large population, as long as China Mobile and China Telecom operate It is not impossible for Shangheli to quickly catch up with FDD-LTE in a short time.
China Mobile executives expressed confidence in the stamina of TD-LTE. Zhao Jibin, vice president of China Mobile, said recently that China Mobile will build 20,000 TD-LTE base stations this year and the network will cover 13 cities. The existing 200,000 TD-SCDMA base stations will smoothly transition to TD-LTE. He predicts that by 2013, "TD-LTE base stations will exceed 200,000, and experimental cities will reach more than 100."
In addition, Zhao Jibin also stated that TD-LTE internationalization is very fast. As of September 2012, 11 operators worldwide have opened 12 commercial TD-LTE services, and 24 operators have signed a total of 31 TD-LTE services. -LTE commercial contract, more than 29 operators have made clear TD-LTE commercial plans, and more than 53 TD-LTE experimental networks have been opened worldwide.
Reporter observation
TD-LTE development bottleneck is still in the terminal
The domestic TD-LTE standard hopes to catch up with the FDD-LTE standard widely used overseas, where is the bottleneck?
To be sure, the bottleneck is not on the network. At present, China Mobile has more than 200,000 TD-SCDMA base stations nationwide. These base stations can be transformed into TD-LTE base stations through software upgrades. Whether it is China Telecom or China Unicom, in accordance with the principle of "co-building and sharing", under the coordination of relevant departments, this network with a low usage rate can be used directly.
However, the situation with mobile phones is much more complicated. Since TD-LTE started late, the reporter learned that as of now only 10 manufacturers worldwide have released TD-LTE products, and 20 chip manufacturers have launched TD-LTE products. According to the data provided by the TD Industry Alliance recently, from the end of 2012 to the first half of 2013, TD-LTE terminal products will mainly be based on data cards, etc. Only in the second half of 2013 will TD-LTE smart phone user-friendly tests appear . The true maturity of TD-LTE smartphones will wait until after 2014. On the contrary, the FDD-LTE smart phone terminal has already matured, and its typical representative is the iPhone5.
Therefore, either large international manufacturers can provide TD-LTE terminals comparable to iPhone5, otherwise it is difficult to attract users to try.
It is gratifying that domestic R & D capabilities for 4G seem to be constantly improving. Recently, China Mobile demonstrated for the first time that it supports 5-mode (LTETDD / LTEFDD / TD-SCDMA / WCDMA / GSM), 11-band (Band38 / 39/40/41/3/7/34/1/2/5/8), and has global Multi-mode multi-band product prototype with roaming capability.
How to solve the terminal bottleneck of TD-LTE? How will domestic operators solve this problem that determines the life and death of TD-LTE networks? Let us wait and see.
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