China's IC industry relies heavily on imports

Customs statistics show that since June 2012, China’s IC exports have begun to show rapid growth. By the end of last year, monthly exports have increased by more than 100% year-on-year, and this growth has peaked in March and April of this year, among which 3 The month-on-year rate of increase was as high as 405%. Although the increase in April has declined, it is still as high as 284%. In the past three months, the export volume and growth rate have gradually declined, but it is still significantly higher than the level of the calendar year.
From January to July, the total value of China’s integrated circuit import and export reached US$195.9 billion, a year-on-year increase of 61%, maintaining a rapid growth momentum. Among them, exports amounted to 59.2 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 159% year-on-year; imports were 136.7 billion U.S. dollars, a year-on-year increase of 38%, both maintaining rapid growth; the trade deficit was 77.5 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 1.5 billion U.S. dollars from the previous year. It is expected that the import and export of integrated circuits in China will maintain a rapid growth in 2013, with imports exceeding US$200 billion and the trade deficit exceeding US$140 billion.

On the import side, there were also significant fluctuations, but the level of fluctuation was lower than the level of fluctuations in exports. Excluding the anomalies in March and April, the import data for the rest of the month remained within the normal range, including monthly imports in March. A record high of 26.8 billion U.S. dollars, which fell to a new high of 22.5 billion U.S. dollars in April, but still a year-on-year increase of 75%.

In addition to the growth in the import and export growth rate of integrated circuits from the middle of 2012, in addition to the increase in demand of the industry itself, hot money arbitrage arbitrage has played a certain role in boosting, especially in the financial environment where the appreciation of the renminbi and domestic capital income are relatively high, and international capital Through small-sized, high-value and relatively free trade integrated circuits, precious metals and other products entering and leaving the country, evading supervision, this has, to some extent, pushed up the trade data of integrated circuits, but in May, the General Administration of Customs, the Foreign Exchange Administration, etc. After releasing a series of regulations to strengthen the supervision of goods and the supervision of funds, the trade data squeezed out some of the water, and the overall trade growth rate also dropped.

Imports mainly come from Asia

The Taiwan region is the most important source region for China's IC imports. Taiwan-funded enterprises such as TSMC and MediaTek occupy an important position in the global IC market irrespective of scale, technology, or market. From January to July 2013, China imported from Taiwan. The integrated circuit was 44 billion U.S. dollars, an increase of 79% year-on-year, accounting for 32% of the total value for the same period. The integrated circuit is the main commodity that caused the trade deficit between China and Taiwan. It was 44 billion U.S. dollars in 2012 and 38.5 billion U.S. dollars in January-July this year.

In the same period, Korea and Malaysia imported 25.5 billion U.S. dollars and 16.8 billion U.S. dollars respectively, ranking second and third respectively with 18% and 12%. Other sources of imports are the United States, Japan, Singapore, and the Philippines.

Trade deficit maintains "high level"

Although exports have maintained a rapid growth momentum and hit a record high every month, China’s IC reliance on imports has not fundamentally changed. From the point of view of deficit data, China’s IC maintains a trade deficit of US$10 billion per month and has fluctuated around this level in the last five years. Even if trade has undergone major fluctuations in the past year, the trade deficit has remained at a level of 10 to 12 billion U.S. dollars per month.

The IC is the second-largest commodity after China's imports, which is second only to crude oil. In 2012, the total import value of 192.8 billion U.S. dollars was only lower than the U.S. crude oil price of 220.6 billion U.S. dollars, and the annual deficit was as high as 139.1 billion U.S. dollars. This figure shows that it is huge and Compared with the rapidly growing domestic market, China's integrated circuit industry has developed rapidly but it is still difficult to meet domestic demand.

China is currently the second largest economy and the second largest trading nation in the world. It is also a major producer and exporter of industrial products such as computers, mobile phones, communications equipment, and consumer electronics. The output of major products accounts for more than 50% of the world's total, of which computers account for More than 90%, more than 70% of mobile phones. Especially after joining the World Trade Organization, the introduction of foreign-invested companies and the rise of domestic-funded enterprises have accompanied the vigorous development of the Internet, mobile communications, and consumer electronics industries in the past decade, pushing China to become the world's largest and fastest-growing integrated circuit market. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the average annual growth rate of integrated circuit production and sales in China exceeded 20% from 2001 to 2012, and the scale of China's integrated circuit industry has increased from 2% of the total size of the world integrated circuit industry in 2001 to 2012. At 10% of the year, the ratio of domestic IC industry scale to market size has never exceeded 20%. Excluding sales received from overseas commissioned OEMs in the IC industry, the actual domestic self-sufficiency rate in China's integrated circuit market is still less than 10%. The situation in which ICs in the domestic market rely heavily on imports has not materially changed.

Large gap between Chinese companies and international standards

In the past ten years, China has formulated a series of promotion policies such as No. 18 and No. 4 which support the encouragement of the development of the integrated circuit industry. Domestic industries have also emerged a considerable number of integrated circuits such as SMIC, Spreadtrum, and Hass. Design and manufacturing companies, but have a large gap with international leaders such as Intel, Samsung, and Qualcomm in terms of industry scale, technology level, and market share. Even with Taiwan-funded enterprises, there is a large gap between them, ranking first in the mainland in 2012. HiSilicon's sales were only one-third of the first MediaTek in Taiwan. According to a survey conducted by research firm ICInsight, among the top 20 semiconductor manufacturers in the world in the first half of this year, eight manufacturers are headquartered in the United States, four in Japan, three in Taiwan, three in Europe, and two in South Korea, even before sales. The 20 companies have no Chinese companies on the list.

In addition, the gap in the domestic integrated circuit industry is also reflected in the lack of concentration of the industrial layout, a serious shortage of inputs and core technologies, key equipment controlled by people and so on. At the same time, the ecological environment for the development of China's integrated circuit industry needs to be optimized. The upstream and downstream collaborations in the design, manufacturing, packaging, testing, and special equipment, instruments, and materials are insufficient, and the interactions between chips, software, complete machines, systems, and applications are not. close.

Imports and exports maintain rapid growth

Over the past 10 years, China's integrated circuit import and export volume has reached an average annual compound growth rate of 15% and 21%, respectively, and there has been no clear signs of slowing down. At present, the rapid development of strategic emerging industries represented by mobile Internet, triple play, Internet of Things, cloud computing, smart grid, and new energy vehicles will become the development of IC industry after computer, network communications, and consumer electronics. new momentum. During the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period, China will also actively explore the upstream and downstream virtual integration model of the integrated circuit industry chain, give full play to the role of the market mechanism, strengthen upstream and downstream cooperation and collaboration in the industry chain, build a value chain, and cultivate and improve the ecological environment. Strengthen the organic connection between integrated circuit product design and software, complete machines, systems and services, and realize the leap of corporate groups at all levels. With the joint promotion of governments, enterprises, and industries, China’s integrated circuit industry will also have far-reaching development. The production and export bases of major trading nations, especially information technology products, will continue to develop rapidly in China's integrated circuit market, and the overall dependence of the industry on imports will continue. It is expected that the import and export of integrated circuits in China will maintain rapid growth in 2013, with imports exceeding US$200 billion and the trade deficit exceeding US$140 billion.