1. "Machine problem" reappears
From the initial failures to the present, the artificial intelligence will lead to a large area of ​​unemployment and even human extinction? Perhaps history will give us some useful clues.
Some people are afraid that the machine will take away the work of everyone, but only selectively benefit a few people and eventually completely subvert the society. However, in history, a similar scene has appeared. Two centuries ago, the wave of industrialization swept across the UK, and the same concerns today have sparked heated debate. At that time, people did not say "industrial revolution" and talked about "machinery quesTIon". In 1821, economist David Ricardo first expressed this view. He focused on "the impact of machines on the interests of different social classes." In particular, "the opinions of the working class, they believe that the use of machines is usually not conducive to Their interests." In 1839, Thomas Carlyle (Scottish philosopher, regarded as the most important social commentator of his time) attacked the so-called "demon of mechanism", he wrote, "the mechanical demon" destructive ability It will disrupt the entire group of workers.
Now, this "machine problem" is making a comeback, although it pretends to be another look - artificial intelligence (AI) technology is advancing by leaps and bounds, and the machine is able to perform tasks that were once only human-powered. Scientists, economists and philosophers are hotly discussing the potential impact of artificial intelligence technology. This effect can be very profound. Because of artificial intelligence technology, work that previously seemed impossible to automate—from radiology to legal work—is now also facing a crisis. In 2013, Carl Benedikt Frey and Michael Osborne of Oxford University conducted a survey and the results were widely cited. The study found that 47% of US jobs have a high probability of being replaced by “computer capital†in the near future. "." A more recent report is: US Merrill Lynch predicts that by 2025, the "influence of creative damage per year" of artificial intelligence may reach 14 to 33 trillion US dollars, including the automation of knowledge work due to artificial intelligence. This resulted in a $9 trillion reduction in employment costs, $8 trillion in manufacturing and medical care expenses, and $2 trillion in efficiency gains after deploying driverless cars and drones. The think tank McKinsey Global InsTItute said that artificial intelligence is promoting social transformation, which is 10 times faster than the industrial revolution, 300 times larger, and almost 3,000 times more affected.
Like people two centuries ago, many people are worried that the machine will lay off millions of people, causing inequality and social unrest. MarTIn Ford has written two best-selling books on automation threats. He is worried that the work of the middle class will disappear and the economic liquidity will stop (the difficulty of raising the economic level of individuals, families or groups). The chaebols will "will If you are locked up in a closed community or an elite city, there may be automated military robots and drones in the side.†Others worry that artificial intelligence threatens human survival because super-smart computers may not recognize human goals. And instead attack the humans who created them. Many people have expressed such concerns, such as physicist Stephen Hawking. Even more surprising is that Elon Musk, the Rocket company SpaceX and the founder of electric car manufacturer Tesla, have the same idea. Similar to Carlyle, Musk warned humans: "We are using artificial intelligence to summon demons." His Tesla car can use the latest artificial intelligence technology to achieve automatic driving, but Musk is worried that the future artificial intelligence hegemon may be too Powerful, losing control of humanity. He said: "Marco Aurelius (the Roman Empire sage) is a good king, but if the king is Caligula (a typical tyrant in the early days of the Roman Empire), the situation is not very optimistic."
Some people see the risks and some see the opportunities. Investors are rushing into this space, and technology giants are constantly acquiring artificial intelligence startups and are vying to attract the best research talent in academia. According to data from the data analysis company Quid, in 2015, the cost of artificial intelligence companies hit a record of $8.5 billion, almost four times that of 2010. According to Nathan Benaich of investment company Playfair Capital, the number of investment rounds of artificial intelligence companies in 2015 was 16% more than in the previous year, while the total number of investment rounds in the technology industry decreased by 3%. Playfair Capital is a fund management organization that has a 25% portfolio of artificial intelligence. "XX+ Artificial Intelligence" replaced "Uber" in the XX industry and became the default business model for startups. Google, Facebook, IBM, Amazon and Microsoft are all looking for ways to build an ecosystem of artificial intelligence services in the cloud. "This technology will be used in all walks of life, as long as the industry has any kind of data, image, language and other data types," said Richard Socher, founder of MetaMind. "Artificial intelligence will bloom everywhere." MetaMind is a company. Artificial intelligence startups, recently acquired by cloud computing giant Salesforce.
What does this mean? This special report will examine the rise of this new technology, explore its potential impact on work, education, and policy, and consider its role in ethics and regulation. At the same time, this article also considers what can be learned from the initial answer to the machine problem. The concerns and enthusiasm caused by AI are comparable and bring a lot of problems. However, it is worth remembering that many of the questions we have asked before and have already got the answer.
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