[High-tech LED "LED Research Review" magazine February issue / Tang Guirong] At the beginning of the new year in 2013, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, and the General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine jointly launched The "Semiconductor Lighting Energy Conservation Industry Plan" (Development and Reform [2013] No. 188) (hereinafter referred to as "Planning"), for the LED industry, can be described as the first "Gift" of the New Year. Although some people in the industry have appraised the "plan", it is a bit late, but compared with the "12th Five-Year Plan for Semiconductor Lighting Technology Development (Draft for Comment)" issued by the Ministry of Science and Technology in July 2012 (hereinafter referred to as "" "Special Plan"), "Planning" has some new changes.
The "Plan" proposes that the annual growth rate of the output value of the LED lighting industry will reach 30%, and it will reach 450 billion yuan in 2015. Previously, the "Special Plan" proposed that by 2015 the industry scale will reach 500 billion yuan. In contrast, the output value target has been lowered.
At the same time, the cultivation of 20-30 leading enterprises proposed by the “Planning†has been reduced by 10-15 compared with the previous “Special Planâ€. According to industry insiders, in the face of overcapacity, the LED industry needs to rationally reduce fever. The country hopes that the industry will change from simply pursuing output value and number of enterprises to pursuing enterprise scale and growth quality. At the same time, the state will encourage mergers and acquisitions between enterprises to support leading enterprises to accelerate development.
In addition, the "Plan" clearly stated that the market share of traditional high-efficiency lighting products such as energy-saving lamps should be stabilized at around 70%, and the market share of LED functional lighting products should be more than 20%. Zhang Xiaofei, director of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, said: "The industry generally believes that LED lighting products will have a greater impact on the traditional incandescent and energy-saving lamp products market, the market share should exceed 30%, the energy-saving lamps proposed in the plan The saying that the market share of products is stable at 70% is not good for the LED industry."
However, this "Planning" still lets everyone see some bright spots and goes further than ever. Firstly, in the promotion of LED lighting, the key areas including commercial lighting, home lighting, public lighting, special lighting, etc. were highlighted, and how to promote LED lighting, including financial subsidies, government subsidies and The society is doing knowledge popularization.
In addition, the “Planning†has plans for new materials and equipment, such as solving the modularization and standardization of LED light sources and lamps, and achieving the goal of 70% or more of LED testing equipment, which provides some new directions for the development of LED industry. The most important thing is that compared with the interpretation and requirements of the special technology for lighting technology and parameters, the "plan" on the core technology and new technology, not only stay in the research and development and testing stage, but to achieve mass production or localization The goal is to provide a detailed description of the follow-up application promotion.
Peng Guoyun, general manager of Guke Semiconductor, said that the country has made a statement, the industry situation is very good, and it also shows that LED lighting can be widely promoted.
However, "Planning" does not stimulate the enthusiasm of all enterprises. On the contrary, the planning that lags behind the market has caused many companies to show some concern.
"This plan has come too late, the market has undergone tremendous changes, and the government has to do guidance. It does not have much substantive significance for enterprises." Even the person in charge of the company bluntly stated that such planning documents would mislead enterprises, so they would rather not choose read.
Focus on promoting application products
According to the "Planning", the main task is to gradually promote LED lighting products with mature application technology and obvious energy-saving effects. In the promotion process, priority is given to promoting indoor commercial lighting products and systems, actively promoting outdoor public lighting products and systems, promoting home lighting products in a timely manner, and actively supporting innovative applications in the fields of automobiles, agriculture, and medical care.
The previous "Special Plan" emphasized technical indicators and parameters, and the promotion of LED lighting applications was limited to demonstration projects. The "Planning" clearly proposed to promote LED lighting applications, in a number of sub-sectors, through subsidies, government procurement, demonstration projects and other promotion methods.
Gao Hongan, an analyst at the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, said that "Planning" focuses on the promotion of lighting applications and has a certain warning effect on traditional lighting companies. The reason why it was not proposed in the past is because LED lighting technology has not reached the requirements of universal promotion, and the current LED lighting technology has matured.
In terms of promotion methods, in addition to the use of demonstration projects, the "Planning" also clearly proposed government procurement and gradually increase financial subsidies for the promotion of LED lighting products, as well as the knowledge of LED lighting for the society.
However, the "Planning" does not propose specific implementation plans for LED lighting promotion, as well as major factors and solutions that affect large-scale promotion. The reporter interviewed some local government departments to understand that although all provinces and cities have mandatory energy-saving emission reduction targets, due to lack of funds, most local governments are also tepid in the promotion of LED lighting.
The reason why Guangdong Province dares to propose to replace all public areas of lighting within three years is based on the pressure of industrial transformation and upgrading. On the other hand, it focuses on the concentration of LED industry in Guangdong Province and adopts the EMC model to maximize the sharing of local governments. Financial pressure.
Other provinces and cities can also promote LED lighting in this way, but this road is not easy.
It is gratifying to note that the "Planning" proposes to improve the entry barriers for the LED lighting industry, avoid blind expansion and low-level redundant construction, and make a statement on the situation that blind investment has led to waste of resources. This also shows that the "Planning" has reflected on the government's support policies in the LED lighting industry in recent years, and has a more clear understanding.
At the same time, the "Planning" proposed to carry out research on the ecological assessment of LED lighting products and the recycling of used LED lighting products. It can be seen that the recycling of used LED lighting products has been put on the agenda.
70% chance of domestic testing equipment
The field of testing equipment, which has always been unnoticed, has also been put on the agenda this year. According to the "Planning", the localization rate of testing equipment is over 70%, which is undoubtedly a good news for domestic photoelectric testing equipment enterprises.
The "Planning" also proposed to accelerate the development and introduction of LED lighting products testing methods, including performance, safety, specifications, interfaces and other national standards.
Pan Jiangen, chairman of Yuanfang Optoelectronics (300306.SZ), said that the development of standards is beneficial to the entire LED industry.
In fact, the "Planning" has made requirements for the localization of testing equipment in advance, and more is to pave the way for the formulation of national standards. Pan Jiangen said that only when the test data is credible can it be recognized by the market.
As a tool for judging data standards, the technical level of testing equipment has become a very important factor for companies. “Selecting high-precision equipment, companies can save more energy when they use data more efficiently.â€
The reporter learned that the photoelectric detection equipment for LED production has entered the stage of global competition. Especially in the global development of LED backlight and general lighting applications, the optoelectronic testing equipment products for packaging and application have become the hotspot of market competition.
At present, domestic testing equipment is not behind the international testing equipment manufacturers in terms of technology and marketing. "We must not only pay attention to the localization rate, but also accept the test of the international market and be recognized by the international market. Only in this way, China's LED standards can stand firm in the international arena," said Pan Jiangen.
In 2011, the market scale of photoelectric detection equipment for production in mainland China reached 1.53 billion yuan, attracting many enterprises to enter this new segment. At present, the number of enterprises reaches nearly 40, Yuanfang Optoelectronics, Zhongwei Optoelectronics, Dazu Optoelectronics, Huateng Semiconductor, Several companies such as Hangzhou Stars have gradually formed their own brand effects and established their respective market positions in the Chinese mainland market. In 2011, the sales of photoelectric detection equipment for local LED production in mainland China has reached 428 million yuan. (As shown below)
Figure: The development trend of the market scale of photoelectric detection equipment for global LED production
It is an irresistible trend to achieve 70% localization of LED testing equipment. However, Ye Qingshan, general manager of Huateng Semiconductor, believes that planning is a guide and support, but the key is to see whether the equipment produced by the company can meet market demand.
At present, the domestic laboratory testing equipment occupancy rate has reached 80%, represented by Yuanfang Optoelectronics. In terms of testing sorting equipment, domestic equipment currently accounts for 70% of the market share in the low-end market, while in the mid-to-high-end market this ratio is only 15%.
Obviously, the localization rate of testing equipment is 70%, mainly to improve the market share of the middle and high-end market. "At present, the technical level of some domestic enterprises has actually reached the level of imported equipment, and the gap between the two sides is not very large." Ye Qingshan said that there are many reasons for the low occupancy rate of domestic high-end testing equipment, for example, customer trust is not high. Capital turnover, etc.
"If the government can give enterprises and users some more substantial support, then localization will be realized faster." Ye Qingshan said that high-end LED testing equipment will be supported and recognized by more customers.
Highlight the core materials and equipment industrialization
Compared with the previous "Special Plan" for MO source, MOCVD, graphic substrate, large-size substrate, etc., only staying in the technology research and development stage, this year's "Planning" has made new requirements, let these technologies truly land and achieve Production.
The "Plan" proposes to strive to achieve mass production of production-type MOCVD equipment, implement tax incentives for the import of key components and raw materials for lighting production equipment, and propose to support high-purity metal compounds (MO sources), new high-efficiency phosphors, and large sizes. Development and industrialization of key materials such as substrates, graphic substrates, packaging materials, and low-cost heat-dissipating materials.
“Planning changes very quickly because the market is changing too fast.†Yan Hong said. However, when interviewing LED companies, it is generally believed that these plans are too slow to be introduced, and there is not much new meaning, and there is not much practical guiding significance for enterprises.
Taking the graphic substrate as an example, Yu Bin, an analyst at the High-Tech LED Industry Research Institute (GLI I), said that since the first half of 2012, there has been a boom in graphic substrate investment in China, and some sapphire and extension companies have taken it as Focus on research and development, but at present, only a few companies such as Dongguan Zhongji Semiconductor can produce mass production of graphic substrates.
The reporter learned that at present, many enterprises in Taiwan have the ability to mass produce graphic substrates, which have already accounted for the vast majority of the mainland China market.
The same is true for large-scale epitaxial chips. Currently, sapphire substrate companies have adopted 4-inch and 6-inch substrates as future development directions. However, according to the current domestic enterprise technology level, few companies capable of mass-producing high-quality 4-inch substrates are few. No company in the world can mass produce a 6-inch sapphire substrate with excellent uniformity. The domestic 4-inch epitaxial chip is still the substrate for the purchase of manufacturers in Taiwan.
“Planning†lags behind the market and does not have a substantive guiding role for enterprises.
“The graphics substrate market was relatively hot in the first half of 2012. Now the government is planning to plan the graphics substrate. In a sense, this is misleading.†Insiders said that if the “plan†is implemented, Will lead more repeated blind investment, when the graphics substrate market competition will be more intense.
The new types of phosphors and MO sources mentioned in the "Planning" are not many enterprises that can be mass-produced in China at present. Taking the MO source as an example, only the Nanda Optoelectronics (300346.SZ) is one of the largest production and sales scales.
The new type of phosphor mainly refers to the remote phosphor, which can eliminate the coating process during packaging and reduce the cost of the whole lamp. At the same time, it can change the different lighting patterns to display the LED characteristics, which will be the development trend of LED lighting in the future. At present, overseas companies such as Mitsubishi Chemical and Intermec have already launched related products.
Obviously, the Plan gives more specific directions for some new materials, new processes and new technologies. If the implementation is in place, it will attract more overseas companies to invest in the mainland.
The "Plan" proposes that the annual growth rate of the output value of the LED lighting industry will reach 30%, and it will reach 450 billion yuan in 2015. Previously, the "Special Plan" proposed that by 2015 the industry scale will reach 500 billion yuan. In contrast, the output value target has been lowered.
At the same time, the cultivation of 20-30 leading enterprises proposed by the “Planning†has been reduced by 10-15 compared with the previous “Special Planâ€. According to industry insiders, in the face of overcapacity, the LED industry needs to rationally reduce fever. The country hopes that the industry will change from simply pursuing output value and number of enterprises to pursuing enterprise scale and growth quality. At the same time, the state will encourage mergers and acquisitions between enterprises to support leading enterprises to accelerate development.
In addition, the "Plan" clearly stated that the market share of traditional high-efficiency lighting products such as energy-saving lamps should be stabilized at around 70%, and the market share of LED functional lighting products should be more than 20%. Zhang Xiaofei, director of the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, said: "The industry generally believes that LED lighting products will have a greater impact on the traditional incandescent and energy-saving lamp products market, the market share should exceed 30%, the energy-saving lamps proposed in the plan The saying that the market share of products is stable at 70% is not good for the LED industry."
However, this "Planning" still lets everyone see some bright spots and goes further than ever. Firstly, in the promotion of LED lighting, the key areas including commercial lighting, home lighting, public lighting, special lighting, etc. were highlighted, and how to promote LED lighting, including financial subsidies, government subsidies and The society is doing knowledge popularization.
In addition, the “Planning†has plans for new materials and equipment, such as solving the modularization and standardization of LED light sources and lamps, and achieving the goal of 70% or more of LED testing equipment, which provides some new directions for the development of LED industry. The most important thing is that compared with the interpretation and requirements of the special technology for lighting technology and parameters, the "plan" on the core technology and new technology, not only stay in the research and development and testing stage, but to achieve mass production or localization The goal is to provide a detailed description of the follow-up application promotion.
Peng Guoyun, general manager of Guke Semiconductor, said that the country has made a statement, the industry situation is very good, and it also shows that LED lighting can be widely promoted.
However, "Planning" does not stimulate the enthusiasm of all enterprises. On the contrary, the planning that lags behind the market has caused many companies to show some concern.
"This plan has come too late, the market has undergone tremendous changes, and the government has to do guidance. It does not have much substantive significance for enterprises." Even the person in charge of the company bluntly stated that such planning documents would mislead enterprises, so they would rather not choose read.
Focus on promoting application products
According to the "Planning", the main task is to gradually promote LED lighting products with mature application technology and obvious energy-saving effects. In the promotion process, priority is given to promoting indoor commercial lighting products and systems, actively promoting outdoor public lighting products and systems, promoting home lighting products in a timely manner, and actively supporting innovative applications in the fields of automobiles, agriculture, and medical care.
The previous "Special Plan" emphasized technical indicators and parameters, and the promotion of LED lighting applications was limited to demonstration projects. The "Planning" clearly proposed to promote LED lighting applications, in a number of sub-sectors, through subsidies, government procurement, demonstration projects and other promotion methods.
Gao Hongan, an analyst at the High-tech LED Industry Research Institute, said that "Planning" focuses on the promotion of lighting applications and has a certain warning effect on traditional lighting companies. The reason why it was not proposed in the past is because LED lighting technology has not reached the requirements of universal promotion, and the current LED lighting technology has matured.
In terms of promotion methods, in addition to the use of demonstration projects, the "Planning" also clearly proposed government procurement and gradually increase financial subsidies for the promotion of LED lighting products, as well as the knowledge of LED lighting for the society.
However, the "Planning" does not propose specific implementation plans for LED lighting promotion, as well as major factors and solutions that affect large-scale promotion. The reporter interviewed some local government departments to understand that although all provinces and cities have mandatory energy-saving emission reduction targets, due to lack of funds, most local governments are also tepid in the promotion of LED lighting.
The reason why Guangdong Province dares to propose to replace all public areas of lighting within three years is based on the pressure of industrial transformation and upgrading. On the other hand, it focuses on the concentration of LED industry in Guangdong Province and adopts the EMC model to maximize the sharing of local governments. Financial pressure.
Other provinces and cities can also promote LED lighting in this way, but this road is not easy.
It is gratifying to note that the "Planning" proposes to improve the entry barriers for the LED lighting industry, avoid blind expansion and low-level redundant construction, and make a statement on the situation that blind investment has led to waste of resources. This also shows that the "Planning" has reflected on the government's support policies in the LED lighting industry in recent years, and has a more clear understanding.
At the same time, the "Planning" proposed to carry out research on the ecological assessment of LED lighting products and the recycling of used LED lighting products. It can be seen that the recycling of used LED lighting products has been put on the agenda.
70% chance of domestic testing equipment
The field of testing equipment, which has always been unnoticed, has also been put on the agenda this year. According to the "Planning", the localization rate of testing equipment is over 70%, which is undoubtedly a good news for domestic photoelectric testing equipment enterprises.
The "Planning" also proposed to accelerate the development and introduction of LED lighting products testing methods, including performance, safety, specifications, interfaces and other national standards.
Pan Jiangen, chairman of Yuanfang Optoelectronics (300306.SZ), said that the development of standards is beneficial to the entire LED industry.
In fact, the "Planning" has made requirements for the localization of testing equipment in advance, and more is to pave the way for the formulation of national standards. Pan Jiangen said that only when the test data is credible can it be recognized by the market.
As a tool for judging data standards, the technical level of testing equipment has become a very important factor for companies. “Selecting high-precision equipment, companies can save more energy when they use data more efficiently.â€
The reporter learned that the photoelectric detection equipment for LED production has entered the stage of global competition. Especially in the global development of LED backlight and general lighting applications, the optoelectronic testing equipment products for packaging and application have become the hotspot of market competition.
At present, domestic testing equipment is not behind the international testing equipment manufacturers in terms of technology and marketing. "We must not only pay attention to the localization rate, but also accept the test of the international market and be recognized by the international market. Only in this way, China's LED standards can stand firm in the international arena," said Pan Jiangen.
In 2011, the market scale of photoelectric detection equipment for production in mainland China reached 1.53 billion yuan, attracting many enterprises to enter this new segment. At present, the number of enterprises reaches nearly 40, Yuanfang Optoelectronics, Zhongwei Optoelectronics, Dazu Optoelectronics, Huateng Semiconductor, Several companies such as Hangzhou Stars have gradually formed their own brand effects and established their respective market positions in the Chinese mainland market. In 2011, the sales of photoelectric detection equipment for local LED production in mainland China has reached 428 million yuan. (As shown below)
Figure: The development trend of the market scale of photoelectric detection equipment for global LED production
It is an irresistible trend to achieve 70% localization of LED testing equipment. However, Ye Qingshan, general manager of Huateng Semiconductor, believes that planning is a guide and support, but the key is to see whether the equipment produced by the company can meet market demand.
At present, the domestic laboratory testing equipment occupancy rate has reached 80%, represented by Yuanfang Optoelectronics. In terms of testing sorting equipment, domestic equipment currently accounts for 70% of the market share in the low-end market, while in the mid-to-high-end market this ratio is only 15%.
Obviously, the localization rate of testing equipment is 70%, mainly to improve the market share of the middle and high-end market. "At present, the technical level of some domestic enterprises has actually reached the level of imported equipment, and the gap between the two sides is not very large." Ye Qingshan said that there are many reasons for the low occupancy rate of domestic high-end testing equipment, for example, customer trust is not high. Capital turnover, etc.
"If the government can give enterprises and users some more substantial support, then localization will be realized faster." Ye Qingshan said that high-end LED testing equipment will be supported and recognized by more customers.
Highlight the core materials and equipment industrialization
Compared with the previous "Special Plan" for MO source, MOCVD, graphic substrate, large-size substrate, etc., only staying in the technology research and development stage, this year's "Planning" has made new requirements, let these technologies truly land and achieve Production.
The "Plan" proposes to strive to achieve mass production of production-type MOCVD equipment, implement tax incentives for the import of key components and raw materials for lighting production equipment, and propose to support high-purity metal compounds (MO sources), new high-efficiency phosphors, and large sizes. Development and industrialization of key materials such as substrates, graphic substrates, packaging materials, and low-cost heat-dissipating materials.
“Planning changes very quickly because the market is changing too fast.†Yan Hong said. However, when interviewing LED companies, it is generally believed that these plans are too slow to be introduced, and there is not much new meaning, and there is not much practical guiding significance for enterprises.
Taking the graphic substrate as an example, Yu Bin, an analyst at the High-Tech LED Industry Research Institute (GLI I), said that since the first half of 2012, there has been a boom in graphic substrate investment in China, and some sapphire and extension companies have taken it as Focus on research and development, but at present, only a few companies such as Dongguan Zhongji Semiconductor can produce mass production of graphic substrates.
The reporter learned that at present, many enterprises in Taiwan have the ability to mass produce graphic substrates, which have already accounted for the vast majority of the mainland China market.
The same is true for large-scale epitaxial chips. Currently, sapphire substrate companies have adopted 4-inch and 6-inch substrates as future development directions. However, according to the current domestic enterprise technology level, few companies capable of mass-producing high-quality 4-inch substrates are few. No company in the world can mass produce a 6-inch sapphire substrate with excellent uniformity. The domestic 4-inch epitaxial chip is still the substrate for the purchase of manufacturers in Taiwan.
“Planning†lags behind the market and does not have a substantive guiding role for enterprises.
“The graphics substrate market was relatively hot in the first half of 2012. Now the government is planning to plan the graphics substrate. In a sense, this is misleading.†Insiders said that if the “plan†is implemented, Will lead more repeated blind investment, when the graphics substrate market competition will be more intense.
The new types of phosphors and MO sources mentioned in the "Planning" are not many enterprises that can be mass-produced in China at present. Taking the MO source as an example, only the Nanda Optoelectronics (300346.SZ) is one of the largest production and sales scales.
The new type of phosphor mainly refers to the remote phosphor, which can eliminate the coating process during packaging and reduce the cost of the whole lamp. At the same time, it can change the different lighting patterns to display the LED characteristics, which will be the development trend of LED lighting in the future. At present, overseas companies such as Mitsubishi Chemical and Intermec have already launched related products.
Obviously, the Plan gives more specific directions for some new materials, new processes and new technologies. If the implementation is in place, it will attract more overseas companies to invest in the mainland.
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