Summit Dialogue: New Border Self-Regulation, Sole Broadcasting and Linkage

In this forum, Gao Jun, General Manager of Beijing Huasheng Film Investment Management Co., Ltd., Zhu Huilong, CEO of Heyi Film, Wang Yangbin, President of Vobile Technologies, and Li Yansong, President of Iqiyi Film, are well-known in the Chinese film industry. The director of Zhou Tiedong and Sina Entertainment, Chen Hao, participated in the dialogue. The following is the full text of the dialogue:

Bao Zheng: Actually, our six distinguished guests today are particularly neat because they constitute our complete industrial chain. No matter if we are from the industrial chain or the industrial chain, we have a very complete structure. The first question, I want to put a question that is not on the outline, that is, which link you think, which member represents the most valuable part, and in the next three years, you can also say that the part you represent is the most profitable. Or is it the most valuable part of the industrial chain to which the other distinguished guests belong? It is the technical link or the network audiovisual link or the network social link, or the link of the film style. Prof. Gao, you come to talk.

Gao Jun: I am more optimistic about the link that Yan Song just said. Because in fact he said that it is to provide services for movies, but in fact it is value-added. So I think the film has always been learning, and has never given up its attitude towards learning. For example, from silent films to audio films, from black and white films to color films, and then to today’s technical intervention and the entry of the Internet, it is definitely not necessary to learn. of. One particularly striking example is that when Chinese films were transferred from the planned economy to the market economy, so many movie companies and so many movie studios had a lot of changes in their concepts and learning attitudes were not correct. Today, either Being eliminated, either half dead or not. Therefore, movies should never give up on the pursuit of new things and learning attitudes. In fact, there are many studies. I think today's movies have learned too much from the Internet, including crowdfunding. I have studied crowdfunding. I think the most significant thing it does is use the method of fundraising to lock early-stage attention groups. This is very bright, so I am more optimistic about their links.

Zhu Huilong: I think this topic is still a matter of time. For example, if you say it is three years, this new media growth will increase five times a year or 30% a year, but it already has a 30 billion site, but you If you have gone up five times, but your base is only a few hundred million. Therefore, if it is a decade, I think that two legs may also turn into three-legged walks.

Bao Jun: And maybe there is no Internet media company after ten years?

Zhu Huilong: As Huawei recently came out with a TV that is not a TV, a big tablet, and only a network, but there is no excuse for a TV. How do you define it? It has already implanted potatoes and Youku. You can Look, but SARFT can't control it, so this is the diversification of channels in the future.

Bao Yan: Tie Dong, do you think?

Zhou Tiedong: I still insist on my own ideas. I don’t think the future is about Internet companies or movie companies. I think that when the industry is more developed and more mature, its sub-unions are getting more and more detailed and more and more specialized. Professionals need professional people to do it. So it's small and complete, big and complete, don't waste. I think that the film industry will definitely be able to separate layers and diversity. Everyone will find their own development points and then do a good job of their own, but the most important thing is content. Content, as I wrote in that article, I used the concept of a champagne tower, Champagne Tower, how many layers of cups you put. Today, there is a boss who said that the pyramid, in fact, I think the champagne tower is more image, Champagne Tower is how many bottles of champagne, you have twenty glasses of champagne can only be placed five, so whether it is five bottles or eight bottles, you There must be enough champagne to fill these screens, so we chose this industry. We have to find where we are. We can all make money, and we use the money that everyone makes to share the cost of this content.

Wang Yangbin: We are from the perspective of the industry chain. I think the source of the content of the industry chain can make money, so that we can have the money to do our services. Therefore, our technology hopes to be able to transfer to this section of our interest in this process. But overall, I feel that if I let me choose, I think it should still be content. Because doing entertainment as an industry, it should still be content. It does not mean that all content will be earned, but good content will make big profits. Just like the stars in sports will earn a lot of money, it does not mean that you will make money by playing. The same is true of art. Many people who study art are hungry, but doing it well will earn a lot of money. In our opinion, when we communicated earlier, more than ten years ago, I was hoping to use technology to be able to interact with television through IP and be able to do well. In the past decade, what we always wanted to do was see the mobile Internet. Due to the lack of a technical means, its content is not charged in many cases and it does not receive the money it deserves, including the new business model. So we now want to provide some technical means for these content producers and publishers to use more means to manage and collect the benefits they have won, but all the purpose is to make the content earn more money.

Bao Yan: Actually, I think Wang is a little modest. Content needs continuous innovation. After you have passed this period, everyone is not interested. Engaging in intermediate network operations is also very hard. Every day, 24 hours, no way. What do you add to Chen Song and Yan Song?

Chen Hao: Because I used to be a content originator, but what I did was not movie content but news content, so I totally agree that content is the most valuable argument. At the same time, I also specifically agree with Dalong.

Gao Jun: It's not necessarily all about making money. It's true that the content is king. However, people who do a lot of content don’t make money. The problem is that if you don’t lose money by doing this, there’s no whole industry chain for this industry. It is the locomotive theory that Tie Dong said, that is, they have the power cost, and the power cost may be paid more than what they get. However, there is no way to talk about the whole industry chain without this effort.

Li Yansong: Actually this is the case. If we say who will make money in the future, in fact, this topic is quite picky. It's hard to say. From a very objective and fair perspective, it must be the channel platform for mastering the core channels. The most profitable. Because it is in control, the content is certainly the most critical, because it is like a champagne tower. It is full, and it is overflowing. The top is sharp, it is the content. The following is the channel. It is necessary to push these people to the people or who The hand is also the process.

Bao Yan: You have given me great inspiration. When we can discuss this matter next year, we must invite Wanda's colleagues. As a traditional theater, they are definitely the biggest one, taking away a lot of shares. Whether it is online or offline conversion of this channel also means a lot of opportunities, do not know this problem, there are no friends under the stage to the guests on the stage to ask questions. I would like to ask questions about big data. I have done some statistics some time ago. In fact, in the past year, the more popular titles, the actual box office results of big data are compared with the final estimated box office results, but some of them are less predictable. For example, the "Little Yellow Man" predicts two billion, but it is 50 million, etc. Some people say that we haven't worked long enough or are not professional enough. You are experts here. You think that big data is in real operation. Why is there such a large deviation, which is closely related to which commercial model we have now?

Zhou Tiedong: Strictly speaking, we have not yet entered the era of big data. I particularly believe in the theory of big data, that Hollywood has entered the era of marketing is relying on big data to enter the era of marketing. You see that Hollywood has a study of people's leisure, and this distribution can be traced back to the Victorian era.

And there is a unique website in the world, which is the main market covered by Hollywood. It predicts how much time it is for sleeping, how much time to read novels, how much time to watch TV, etc. It has this data, and it There is audience segmentation, which is how humans allocate their own time. How long it is to watch a movie and how long to sleep. It has particularly detailed data. These data are very direct, and companies All of them have such data, and it has a very complete third-party investigation system. So today I am very pleased to hear that there are actually Wang Quan’s company in Hangzhou. This is doing infrastructure work, especially our industry. The chain has not yet been established. I mentioned seven opportunities before, that is, we have too many blanks. Our transitional investment, overcapacity, overcrowded industries and links form a complete industrial chain, so that we are qualified to talk about Big Data.

Gao Jun: I also want to say a few words. In fact, I am not inconsistent with big data, but I don't know how big the big data we are talking about today are with the previous survey companies. Because there was a small story, in the mid-1990s, Chen Kaige made a movie. It was an all-star lineup and was called "King and King of Thorn," and I remember when I was developing a guild, when I invited a zero-pointing company at home, One of his vice presidents has a dialogue with us. He said that after we conducted an investigation on a sample survey of the whole society, the data obtained was that Kaige Director had 180 million box-office tickets. At that time, the box office was very inconvenient. I say whether your investigation is true. He said this is true. Later, we felt that this was not very accurate. Then according to some laws of the industry, we gave a forecast of 18 million. Because movie box office prediction is not a simple prediction, there are many factors that affect movie box office after a movie is released. For example, the schedule period, competitors in the same period, including propaganda are in place. At that time we summed up six factors, and the survey company did not consider it at all. Then gave a data.

The final result, we are particularly accurate, is 19 million. Later, the zero survey company said that it will not be involved in the investigation of the film later. Therefore, I think the big data after this year can be used, but it cannot be separated from the particularity of this industry. If it is a purely social survey, then I think this survey is deceptive or has two sides. Therefore, I think that big data must gradually be scientifically rationalized and gradually merge with the industry so that big data can be available and usable.

Wang Yangbin: If we say here technically speaking, that is a lot of data, but if the incoming data itself has a difference in the collection, it may not be very comprehensive, the second you have established a model problem, then the final result is certainly wrong of. In the United States, there is a famous one. He used to be a baseball player before. In the end he made data. According to the conditions of his preliminary game, he can do a model to estimate his next game, because There are different situations in the forecast. He applied this estimate to the U.S. elections. In the second election of Obama, U.S. Fifty states predicted that he was all right. This was very surprising. He probably had one state in the last session. All other states are accurate. This data shows his strength. Votes like US elections are all live reports to count the votes, but that number has not been counted and he has already predicted. Now all US campaigns, including the purchase of advertisements, have all been backed by big data. It is very important where and when to vote. So, I think big data is the reason for it.

Of course, the prediction you just talked about may not be accurate. I don't know where the reason lies. But I can give an example to illustrate its complexity on the Internet. For example, when you talked about the Dream of the Red Chamber, it has different versions of movies and may be talking about fiction, so it is very difficult for you to look at this thing. It is what film it is, so the reason why we do technology is to hope to find it. What is the matter, whether this video is issued by the company this quarter, or other aspects. What we have recently provided to help the movie and distribution market is to help them to count the data. We can't brag about saying that all of them can be counted, but you can explain how this thing is exported through the film. Need to rely on a lot of experience to deduce.

Bao Yan: As a man of literary arts, I feel that the data itself is one thing, and then how to build a model based on the characteristics of the industry, this is another matter.

Chen Hao: I think if you want to talk about big data, you really need to put it in an objective environment. I think that big data is actually a broad concept. It does not mean that only predicted emissions are the data, and the forecast of the box office follows us. The social environment at the place also has a great relationship. For example, our change in the policy level will have a big impact on the movie box office, but it can not be completed by big data. On the other hand, I think that in addition to considering these things, big data applications don't have to be applied to the box office. I think this will kill them. However, big data can help us to do some analysis. We set aside the absolute box office figures of the film industry. I say from the news level, for example, when we see a film item thrown on the Internet, we used to It can only be said from High that this is how many times we have been swiped or forwarded in our circle of friends, but you do not know whether there is malicious transmission. In the end this data is on this platform, you do not know what the customer's feedback is, in the end it is like dislike. I remember that when a movie was filmed, most of my friends said that the film was really bad and I wasn't interested in it and I didn’t watch it. However, when we looked at the data later, we felt that this was not the case. We think that Zhao Wei is very special. They have all been attracted by Zhao Wei. This has reached a very high percentage.

Zhu Huilong: In fact, in many industries, the analysis of data is always there, data is changing, and no data is static. People like the stock market are analyzing data, but aren't they predicting everything? The core of the data is not to say that the forecast is accurate, but rather to use it as a reference for your decision. This is particularly important. You have to use data to make decisions. Then there is the sample. I think the more samples, the more data you give to you, because the logic and methods of collecting data are very important. This data must be researched to be true. Therefore, a data is Dynamic, and second, there must be enough samples to make the data more realistic.

Li Yansong: Regarding big data, I may not share the same opinion with you, but it is slightly similar to Dalong. In fact, big data is something that people often say, and we have been doing analysis and research on things like big data for more than a year and all news reports, including the entire research market in the United States. But my opinion is not necessarily correct. I think big data is business. Big data is operations. This is the core of big data. Why do I say similar to Dalong's idea that big data is a sample database problem and it is a top-level modeling problem. For example, whether there were related movies in the same period last year, the year before, or the same period of this year. What are its key marketing areas? Such as various basic data, including past box office sub-regional performance and Baidu search. The amount, as well as microblogging forwarding and commentary, are the most basic things in big data. After the modeling is done, what do you give this data? It is to make decisions for people in the movie. What are the shortcomings of my movie marketing? How do I do this business? How do I relate movies of related categories to movies of the same category as my movie? But I use different kinds of coefficients for different movies. This is a statistical issue. This is to guide marketing and guide how to do movie business. As a matter of fact, there is no domestic company that is currently doing big data research on movies. It is not that this data is particularly complicated, but that everyone's starting point is different. We just said why we wanted to find dozens of engineers to do this because we had done a good job in the variety show before, but the movie is not the same. I guess you would cite the example of gold. This example uses me. The view is very simple, Baidu's big data has come to what kind of point? Everyone can see CCTV's various reports of the year. GDP is good, and living standards are good. Almost all of them are Baidu data. Why? It is particularly simple. The number of its sample bases is large enough. This is one of the reasons why it is used. However, why is the number of gold on my side unpredictable, and why is it particularly simple? Its figure is placed on all people and all industries, not on the movie, and there are many factors that are not factored in, such as the performance of the actors, their scores, and the direction of marketing. This is also to multiply the coefficient, including the place to do propaganda, marketing points in different directions, the coefficient is also different, so one is the business, one is the operation, how to use these numbers to adjust your layout, adjust your cycle, What is the final release date of your cinema line?

Another example is that this year there was a movie that was very bleak at the box office, but the movie with a good reputation, released on the third day of the movie, the boss called me and said that I couldn't come on this movie.

I think the first day is five points and the second day is two points, but the attendance rate is very high. What do I say about your chosen marketing plan? He doesn't understand it. I said that I have been on the line for several years. Your marketing must be prepared with one set, two sets, or three sets. Because you don't have any data, if you can't do it in the past two days, then you can guarantee your attendance rate. Word of mouth, how to use your microblogging, how to use WeChat, word of mouth how to push, but he did not use, did not think that before this category of film users a simple survey, analysis, even if it is to take to the streets, ten employees one day Are you full of people asking you happiness? Similar to this kind of question, it is also a sample survey, but the sample database is relatively small, but it can provide you with a certain basis, so I think this is the real data that a movie maker can provide. The significance of value. I really hope that we, some of us here, will succeed in this matter, but it is really difficult. The statistics of these data really need a huge team.

Another thing I did with Dalong and the two companies was the recommendation of the algorithm. What is the algorithm recommendation? I see a movie, related recommendations, whether the accuracy of the recommendation is high, whether I like it, whether it is consistent with my favorite point, in fact, this is a very difficult thing, there are many engineers continue to optimize, modeling is very The key to good construction is continuous optimization, and this matter is completely 100% investment in the early days, and there will be no output in one or two years. Therefore, we look forward to all of us joining together to open forums similar to today. We gradually have some consensus. Finally we all share the same benefits. This is my own view.

Zhou Tiedong: Just now Yan Song always said a lot, but I think he ignored the smallest data, which is a niche theme. It is a niche theme work. If it takes this budget to 10 million or even 5 million, its 400 billion box office will still not lose money. This is a very simple fact. Some companies' products are It’s niche, and their budget is definitely controlled at 5 million U.S. dollars, or 10 million U.S. dollars. It’s a niche, but it’s a big box office that’s spanning the masses from the niche and talking about so many The data, but neglected by the minority, eventually formed a tragedy.

Bao Zhe: This is a very vivid example. Because of this example, we also see that big data in foreign countries will also appear. An error in this parameter will cause the entire model to be biased. Are there any friends under the table to ask questions?

Question: Good ladies and gentlemen. Since I was a 90-year-old reader, I was asked a more realistic question. I asked a more realistic question, which is how the future of the O2O and the network audiovisual integration will affect the real economy department stores, apart from buying tickets online and watching movies offline. What kind of big influence will there be? The question I am now asking is more realistic, because e-commerce is now completely defeated by the real economy. If O2O is combined with Internet audiovisual, what impact will it bring to department stores in the future?
Zhu Huilong: I think they all have their own powerful places. For example, some business-related things, you can't do a good job online, so O2O must maintain its core competitiveness, must have something that cannot be replaced by others. I think you have to find your own point. The core of this point is that O2O can't replace it. You have to play to the extreme and find a reason that suits your own existence.

Question: How to better integrate with network audio and video. For example, how does O2O show up in a movie or a video?

Zhu Huilong: I think this is not quite complicated. Hand-buying this is a very easy thing. Now that we have a lot of videos on it, for example, if the hero has picked up a bag in the video, a package will appear next to the video, and you can click on it to purchase it.

Question: Because I like to watch movies and I often watch movies on the Internet, I would like to ask a few questions. First, I would like to ask about Zhu Yiyi Zhu Zhehe and Iqiyi Li Zong. I would like to ask if you have plans to make movies yourself. The second question is that I would like to ask Chen, general manager of Sina Entertainment, just mentioned that a series of publicity methods, including various applications of Sina Weibo, can make a lot of movies reach a good communication effect. If a film meets the naval forces, what kind of emergency plan will you use to give it a bonus? Another is whether you have a better way to get them to a more satisfying box office score in the face of some niche videos. Thank you.

Li Yansong: I answer your first question. Yes, when will it be announced, probably in January or February 2015, we will further upgrade on the basis of IGI Artiste, thank you.

Zhu Huilong: If you are a media, you may have read our news. We announced our plan at that time, that is, the 1895 plan, which was the year of the birth of the film. One is that we will develop new filmmakers with the Film Directors Association. Then there are a lot of movies. The movies we push are on the plane or on the high-speed rail. There is also a big movie that we hatched. Like “Old Boy” is our incubating movie. You can understand this movie is that we invested in it, and we are the first product. At the time, all our production was outsourced. But we will manage the entire project as capitalists, so we will have some films coming out next year.

Question: How do you get involved in the production of movies like you did in the movie, and make it better to get the highest quality of the film?

Zhu Huilong: There is an old saying that something is artificial, you want to build a good team when you are doing a movie. You don’t need to pay too much attention to this detail. The key is to pay attention to photography, lighting, and actors. You have to choose well. Our company There are also producers, but I will not participate in the production of special details.

Question: Have you ever thought of cross-channel marketing, such as working with print media and radio and television?

Zhu Huilong: Of course, there has always been. One of our recent "Reporter Boss" is now exported to radio stations. It is 15 minutes a day like a talk show on radio. This is normal and very much needed. In some cases, everyone on the Internet will save traffic. When the radio station is turned on, it can be heard directly.

Chen Hao: The first question is about the navy. First of all, I must admit one thing. In the existing Internet incident, there is no room for absolutely no naval forces. This does not exist. But what we need to do is how to control their voice when we find the navy. This is also a point we paid special attention to when we started this product. I asked a lot of questions from our team. He told me that in fact, we can use the data to change the background and identify and adjust the same content on multiple occasions. But I don’t think I can say anything because I’m afraid It was heard by the Navy, so I can only talk about this part.

The second question, I think this may be answered from two aspects. The first answer is that marketing is absolutely not a panacea, the heart is the core, the heart is like the person who plays at the stadium, the content is football, we are playing this thing, how about the quality of this football, this is the core . Like this year's Berlin Film Festival film, "The Fireworks of the Day" we dare not say it is a very good work, but if it finds its own advantages and can find the corresponding crowd, I think we can send it in the snow. Or is it icing on the cake.

Gao Jun: This question, I will give you a reply of 12 characters. To highlight your own characteristics, play differentiation, don't invest too much in the announcement fee, or else you won't be able to come back to this book.

Bao Yan: Well, because of the time, we are about to close today's dialogue sub-forum. As 2015 is approaching, we will have a review and outlook each year when we reach the end of the year. I would like to invite guests on the stage to talk about the outlook for 2015. In the simplest terms, let us talk about the entire industry for 2015. Hope and blessing for 2015.

Wang Yangbin: I think the Internet has gone for a decade, and it has reached a moment of flashpoint. I think that in 2015, everyone here will have faster development in all aspects, especially in the domestic market. Of course, we are also very optimistic about it. Only you will flourish in the industry chain. Then our service will come.

Gao Jun: I think the movie market is good, but there are many subtle factors.

In 2015, I had a hope to withstand pressure and create greater glories.

Zhu Huilong: In fact, the pressure on Chinese films in 2015 should be relatively large, because the 2015 will be the big year of Hollywood. They have many large movies. As an Internet movie, the convergence of China’s mobile Internet and movies is actually doing better than the United States, so I am still very excited about the competition between the Chinese movie industry and the big movie platform in the United States in 2015. I believe there will be more surprises for everyone next year.

Chen Hao: I am a film reporter. When I went to the European Film Festival, I was very sad because I found out that during the film festival, there were some old-looking old journalists. They were particularly calm, and our Chinese reporters were all Young, very nervous, I just want to be the old reporter. So my heart is outstretched. I hope not to discuss the future next year but to discuss the future. I hope that in addition to the box office, I hope to spend more time discussing the quality of the movie.

Zhou Tiedong: In the past few days, the Beijing Daily published an article on my behalf called “China's movie market will surely have a turning point next year”. In fact, the article was not written by me, but my speech on a forum was a reporter. Written, but the name is written by me. I think that starting from next year, due to various factors, we will gradually have a hierarchy in our market and product diversification. The atmosphere of exploring movies from quality may appear because next year is the 110th anniversary of the birth of Chinese films and the 120th anniversary of the birth of world movies. So let's look forward to it together.

Li Yansong: I just said to send blessings and messages. I gave my own blessings. I hope that the growth rate of iQiyi Film Industry in 2015 will be the fastest.

Bao Hao : Well, the audience gave us the honored guests and invited our guests to pose for a photo together.