China LED indoor lighting market growth curve analysis

With the progress of semiconductor lighting technology, LED lighting products have begun to enter the field of indoor lighting. LED lighting is considered to be the development trend of future lighting, and the huge market of indoor lighting is always affecting the heart of the industry. Development is a process. How far is LED lighting entering the main indoor lighting market? What kind of stage will be experienced? How should the company develop? The magazine communicates with a number of people in the industry and hopes to roughly describe the growth curve of the domestic LED indoor lighting market and provide reference for the industry.

LED indoor lighting product market share may reach 50% in 2020

For the domestic LED interior lighting market, which is affected by many factors and is rapidly developing at the same time, it is difficult to accurately predict the market share of its products. Many people in the interview believe that the LED indoor lighting market share may reach 10% by 2012. It may reach 30% in 2015, and it may reach 50% by 2020. However, the survey of China's semiconductor lighting network for the popularization of LED lighting shows that many people are still relatively optimistic. OSRAM related people believe that the market share of LED indoor lighting in 2020 may reach 80%, and because LED design space is huge, in addition to the expanding scale of the lighting market, it will also drive the development of related markets, and the overall market size is huge.

Although a variety of indoor lighting products can be seen at present, in the eyes of many people in the industry, as a new type of light source, the current domestic LED indoor lighting market has just started, whether it is LED interior lighting products itself or related technologies, specifications The concept of standards and consumers needs a certain amount of time to develop. At present, the technology and products of LED interior lighting are still not mature enough and are not suitable for large-scale promotion.

For the development stage of domestic LED indoor lighting, Zhang Li, executive vice president of Sichuan Xinli Light Source Co., Ltd. believes that LED interior lighting is still in the technical preparation stage, and this stage will continue for two to three years. Later, as consumers' awareness of LED lighting products increases, the establishment of standards, standards systems, and the maturity of production processes will enter the stage of relatively mature primary promotion. After 2015, with the recovery of the world economy, the increase in consumer affordability, and the impact of energy shortages and higher electricity prices, LED interior lighting products can be expected to promote faster. "The market share of LED indoor lighting products may reach 70% to 80% by 2025," said Zhang Li.

LED bulb business opportunities will be strong after 2014

At present, the domestic LED interior lighting is mainly concentrated in decorative lighting, such as some entertainment venues, commercial lighting and public lighting such as underground parking, star hotel corridors, etc., have not really entered the market huge ordinary household lighting. The main indoor lighting products include commercial fluorescent lamps, downlights, spotlights, bulb lamps that replace incandescent lamps, and freezer lamps. Peng Wanhua, deputy head of the Semiconductor Lighting Technical Standards Working Group of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, pointed out that according to the plans of some foreign countries to develop LED indoor lighting, it is estimated that commercial lighting will be mainly promoted from 2010 to 2012, and general lighting will be mainly pushed from 2012 to 2015. Ordinary household lighting. From a technical point of view, the current quality of light, such as light color, is not very good, and domestic lighting requires high light, so it is not advisable to advocate residential lighting in recent years.

As the future development trend of lighting, LED large-scale into the indoor lighting process is what? LED bulbs are one of the important forms in many LED interior lighting products. According to the study of the global lighting bulb market by the Extension Industry Research Institute, the light bulb market is a traditional light source at least until 2017, and incandescent lamps, fluorescent lamps, and new light sources such as LED bulbs will be the dominant market. LED bulbs still need to replace various mainstream traditional and energy-saving light sources over a period of time. At present, LED bulbs are still in the market introduction stage. It is expected that the business opportunities for LED bulbs will be very strong after 2014. After 2018, the demand for LED bulbs will significantly lead to light sources such as fluorescent lamps.

In general, the growth of LED bulbs in the lighting market can be broadly divided into three stages: Before 2012, incandescent, fluorescent and energy-saving lamps will be the main source of light bulb lighting, and LED prices are high, in the demonstration stage, mainly Replace incandescent lamps. In 2012-2014, with the orderly implementation of the global incandescent lamp cut-off policy, incandescent lamps will gradually disappear in the market after 2012. At this stage, the energy-saving lamp market is expected to enter the peak of growth and will dominate the lighting market. However, it is estimated that by 2014, LED bulbs will substantially replace incandescent lamps, fluorescent lamps, etc., and enter the mature period. At the same time, the cost of LED bulbs is constantly decreasing. With the increasing number of LED manufacturers that have been introduced in recent years, the price will decline at a faster rate, and the LED market may also advance 1 to 2 years in advance.

The future of the LED indoor lighting market is undoubtedly, in the face of the future market, how should domestic companies take action? “At present, we must strengthen patents and technological research, and we must also conduct certain publicity to increase consumer awareness of LED. At the same time, we should also promote standardization and standardization, and ultimately allow consumers to choose between 20 to 50 standard products. It is not a matter of choosing between thousands of standard products, or consumers will find it difficult to find replacement products.” Zhang Li said. Zhou Xie, general manager of NVC Shanghai R&D Center, said that in terms of enterprises, companies should strengthen their R&D efforts and acquire more core competitive technologies. Second, we must really calm down and make good products. As a company facing a huge market of LED interior lighting, it is impossible to face everything. Shen Jinxiang, chairman and general manager of Zhejiang Shenghui Lighting Co., Ltd., said that whether it is a traditional lighting company or an LED lighting company, it is very important to identify and play an advantage.