“I personally feel that the global PV market will continue to show an upward trend in 2011, but the momentum will only slow down.†Dr Murray Cameron, chairman of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA), last week at the 5th SNEC (2011) International Solar Energy At the Industrial and Photovoltaic Engineering (Shanghai) Exhibition and Forum, the reporter of the "First Financial Daily" said so.
When the PV industry experienced a surge in product prices in 2008, a sudden drop in 2009, and a high-profile pick-up in 2010, it is gradually shifting to the normal track. Experts and people in the industry are also trying to answer three questions about the industry: What will happen this year? Where is the potential market? What are the problems in the industry and how can they be solved?
Demand will continue to grow At this year's PV Forum, companies are feeling that PV orders are now more abundant.
A senior executive from Jiangsu Greenball Photovoltaic Co., Ltd. introduced to the reporter that the production line is now very full every day. It is expected that 100 MW will be shipped in the first half of the year. According to the investigation by Guolian Securities, it has also been found that several major photovoltaic companies, including Yingli Green Energy, can basically cover their production capacity in the first half of the year.
A certain senior executive of Shanghai Juheng Solar Energy Co., Ltd. told reporters that the photovoltaic industry in the first half of the year was in a better condition. The probable reason was that Germany's PV subsidy reduction policy will be launched in the second half of the year, and the reduction policy is not as large as originally expected. While the reduction of photovoltaic power price subsidies in Italy and other places has not yet been announced, its implementation time may be similar to that of Germany. It is estimated that the installed capacity of the German and Italian markets this year may be more than 120% of last year.
Zhao Yuwen, deputy director of the China Renewable Energy Society, believes that there will be detailed data on PV installations in the past year in March. “But most people expect that the installed capacity in 2010 will be around 15Gw to 16Gw.â€
According to French local media reports, in 2011 the French government may change the previous subsidies for the implementation of the project. In the first half of this year, the country’s new installed capacity may reach 1,000 MW to 2,000 MW.
If the installed capacity of photovoltaics is increased, the demand for manufacturing including polysilicon, silicon wafers, modules and photovoltaic devices will be driven.
LDK Solar estimates that in May of this year, Hefei, Anhui, will have a total capacity of 1600 megawatts of batteries. Production of battery modules, including Trina Solar, Suntech Power, CSI Artis, etc., will also be expanded. It may be 50% or more higher than in 2010.
Another supplier of photovoltaic upstream raw materials, GCL-Poly (03800.HK), plans to gradually increase the production capacity of polysilicon and silicon wafers to three times the current production capacity. For example, its polysilicon production capacity will expand from 21,000 tons to about 60,000 tons.
Battery sizing supplier Andy London, manager of the Heraeus Photovoltaic Division, also stated that due to the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry in 2011, the company’s production is also expected to double. "We have greatly strengthened our company's pulp production in 2010. Now we must continue to increase our factory and expand our production capacity in view of market conditions."
He also said that the company is also studying new product lines. "We have designed special front and back silver paste products for the latest N-type photovoltaic cells."
The development of the market may still be relatively stable. Although the supply of polysilicon and silicon wafers will increase, it will not be as large as it seems. In addition, the production capacity of PV modules is also released relatively quickly. Therefore, it is difficult for us to see the surge in module prices in the short term. It is estimated that the market will experience lower volatility throughout the year. PV module prices may drop by about 20%.
China Merchants Securities researcher Wang Liusheng predicted that the global component capacity will be between 30G watts and 40G watts this year, but the demand may be only about 20G watts to 25G watts, "Europe has always been the main battlefield of the photovoltaic industry, and this year Although the demand has increased, it still can't catch up with the expansion of PV production. The bargaining behavior of PV prices will be seen everywhere in Germany and other places. “I think the price reduction will exceed 20%. Since the end of February this year, the price of PV modules has fallen by more than 10% from the end of December last year. â€
Where is the market?
Another question people have about the photovoltaic industry is where is the market with the most potential?
Murray Cameron said that the German market can start in the short term. On the one hand, the photovoltaic power price subsidy policy in the region is very strong and the direction of the policy is clear. The investor’s return on earnings is also guaranteed. In addition, because of the conditions of sunlight in Germany may be more prominent to some extent, "especially in southern Germany, the sun is more abundant."
The larger PV market may be concentrated in places such as Asia and South America, such as China in Asia, Singapore, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil in South America. Of course, there are great prospects for Saudi Arabia, Australia and South Africa in the Middle East.
According to the EPIA's predictions, a total of 66 countries are estimated to be located in sunny locations. The installed capacity of photovoltaics is expected to reach 405 Gw by 2030. By then, 300 million people will have a stable supply of electricity, accounting for about these countries and regions. 2.5% to 6% of electricity generation.
At present, Germany's installed photovoltaic capacity is about 2% of the country's total electricity. If photovoltaic installations can reach 50% of the total, then the development of the photovoltaic industry in Germany will be sufficient.
A government official responsible for the management of the photovoltaic industry revealed to reporters that at present, China’s policy is still based on the “photovoltaic†and other photovoltaic incentive policies that have already been introduced. It is unclear whether this year’s PV pricing policy will be introduced.
The official said that some US companies have chosen to jointly build state-owned PV power plants in China, which is based on the effective action taken by the former who are not sure about the PV price in the Chinese market.
The American company he refers to is First Solar, the world's largest manufacturer of thin-film batteries. On January 5th this year, First Solar and China General Nuclear Power Solar Energy Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "China Guangdong Nuclear") signed a memorandum of understanding, and the two sides will jointly develop a 30-megawatt AC project for the first phase of Ordos Photovoltaic Power Plant. According to this memorandum, China Guangdong Nuclear Power will be the main body for the construction and operation of the project and will be responsible for project engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) work. According to the information released by First Solar, the company is expected to build a total of 2G watts of photovoltaic power plants in Ordos, which will be completed in four phases. It is estimated that the entire project will be completed in 2019. 2G watts may be equivalent to about 4 times the total installed PV installations in China last year.
“Although the domestic PV market has already started, it seems that the intensity is not large enough compared to other parts of the world. Assuming that the photovoltaic power price in each region cannot be determined, then some investors who are very cautious and develop their own funds will find it more risky. Photovoltaic module prices in the Chinese market are also often weighed down so that the willingness of the module factory to directly supply power to the power plant is not strong enough,†stressed Wang Liusheng.
JA Solar CEO Fang Peng’s view is even clearer. He believes that including photovoltaic industry associations, current bids, and national policies on the photovoltaic industry have not played a large role in stimulating the start-up industry. (China) Shorten the learning cycle as soon as possible. "If it is not resolved from the policy side, it will be difficult for the industry to develop."
However, the aforementioned officials also believe that companies cannot rely solely on national policies, but need to reduce costs and increase efficiency through market competition.
Wang Liusheng said that if there is no bid low price, then the costs of components and other links cannot be effectively compressed, and it is even less likely to reduce the PV price.
What problems need to be solved?
Under the hot weather, what issues does China's photovoltaic industry need to pay enough attention to? Gao Jifan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Trina Solar (TSL.NYSE), stated that counterfeit goods in overseas markets are a real headache. “Whether it is a famous or non-famous trademark, there will be counterfeit products. I think This is an injury to Chinese companies."
In addition, although the Philippines and other countries have great potential for photovoltaic industry, after all, the investment in photovoltaic power plants is long-term. If there is no double insurance such as political and economic development, the attractiveness of PV power plants in the region is still small.
For example, after a photovoltaic power station is built, based on annual PV tariff subsidies, the power plant is estimated to have a fixed rate of return of 6% per year. However, if the government authorities cut all the original subsidies, then the power station will only It can be an empty shell and the company will lose everything.
The industry leaders in the future are photovoltaic companies that are growing up. They are still some large multinational companies. Fang Peng has pointed out that some large companies have already acquired PV companies in China (the most famous example is Korea Hanwha Group's acquisition of Jiangsu Linyang Solar). In addition, China must have some national-level laboratories or international-level laboratories to strengthen investment through cooperation in order to continue to improve its own manufacturing technology and R&D technology.
When the PV industry experienced a surge in product prices in 2008, a sudden drop in 2009, and a high-profile pick-up in 2010, it is gradually shifting to the normal track. Experts and people in the industry are also trying to answer three questions about the industry: What will happen this year? Where is the potential market? What are the problems in the industry and how can they be solved?
Demand will continue to grow At this year's PV Forum, companies are feeling that PV orders are now more abundant.
A senior executive from Jiangsu Greenball Photovoltaic Co., Ltd. introduced to the reporter that the production line is now very full every day. It is expected that 100 MW will be shipped in the first half of the year. According to the investigation by Guolian Securities, it has also been found that several major photovoltaic companies, including Yingli Green Energy, can basically cover their production capacity in the first half of the year.
A certain senior executive of Shanghai Juheng Solar Energy Co., Ltd. told reporters that the photovoltaic industry in the first half of the year was in a better condition. The probable reason was that Germany's PV subsidy reduction policy will be launched in the second half of the year, and the reduction policy is not as large as originally expected. While the reduction of photovoltaic power price subsidies in Italy and other places has not yet been announced, its implementation time may be similar to that of Germany. It is estimated that the installed capacity of the German and Italian markets this year may be more than 120% of last year.
Zhao Yuwen, deputy director of the China Renewable Energy Society, believes that there will be detailed data on PV installations in the past year in March. “But most people expect that the installed capacity in 2010 will be around 15Gw to 16Gw.â€
According to French local media reports, in 2011 the French government may change the previous subsidies for the implementation of the project. In the first half of this year, the country’s new installed capacity may reach 1,000 MW to 2,000 MW.
If the installed capacity of photovoltaics is increased, the demand for manufacturing including polysilicon, silicon wafers, modules and photovoltaic devices will be driven.
LDK Solar estimates that in May of this year, Hefei, Anhui, will have a total capacity of 1600 megawatts of batteries. Production of battery modules, including Trina Solar, Suntech Power, CSI Artis, etc., will also be expanded. It may be 50% or more higher than in 2010.
Another supplier of photovoltaic upstream raw materials, GCL-Poly (03800.HK), plans to gradually increase the production capacity of polysilicon and silicon wafers to three times the current production capacity. For example, its polysilicon production capacity will expand from 21,000 tons to about 60,000 tons.
Battery sizing supplier Andy London, manager of the Heraeus Photovoltaic Division, also stated that due to the rapid development of the photovoltaic industry in 2011, the company’s production is also expected to double. "We have greatly strengthened our company's pulp production in 2010. Now we must continue to increase our factory and expand our production capacity in view of market conditions."
He also said that the company is also studying new product lines. "We have designed special front and back silver paste products for the latest N-type photovoltaic cells."
The development of the market may still be relatively stable. Although the supply of polysilicon and silicon wafers will increase, it will not be as large as it seems. In addition, the production capacity of PV modules is also released relatively quickly. Therefore, it is difficult for us to see the surge in module prices in the short term. It is estimated that the market will experience lower volatility throughout the year. PV module prices may drop by about 20%.
China Merchants Securities researcher Wang Liusheng predicted that the global component capacity will be between 30G watts and 40G watts this year, but the demand may be only about 20G watts to 25G watts, "Europe has always been the main battlefield of the photovoltaic industry, and this year Although the demand has increased, it still can't catch up with the expansion of PV production. The bargaining behavior of PV prices will be seen everywhere in Germany and other places. “I think the price reduction will exceed 20%. Since the end of February this year, the price of PV modules has fallen by more than 10% from the end of December last year. â€
Where is the market?
Another question people have about the photovoltaic industry is where is the market with the most potential?
Murray Cameron said that the German market can start in the short term. On the one hand, the photovoltaic power price subsidy policy in the region is very strong and the direction of the policy is clear. The investor’s return on earnings is also guaranteed. In addition, because of the conditions of sunlight in Germany may be more prominent to some extent, "especially in southern Germany, the sun is more abundant."
The larger PV market may be concentrated in places such as Asia and South America, such as China in Asia, Singapore, India, Indonesia, Philippines, Vietnam, Mexico, Argentina, and Brazil in South America. Of course, there are great prospects for Saudi Arabia, Australia and South Africa in the Middle East.
According to the EPIA's predictions, a total of 66 countries are estimated to be located in sunny locations. The installed capacity of photovoltaics is expected to reach 405 Gw by 2030. By then, 300 million people will have a stable supply of electricity, accounting for about these countries and regions. 2.5% to 6% of electricity generation.
At present, Germany's installed photovoltaic capacity is about 2% of the country's total electricity. If photovoltaic installations can reach 50% of the total, then the development of the photovoltaic industry in Germany will be sufficient.
A government official responsible for the management of the photovoltaic industry revealed to reporters that at present, China’s policy is still based on the “photovoltaic†and other photovoltaic incentive policies that have already been introduced. It is unclear whether this year’s PV pricing policy will be introduced.
The official said that some US companies have chosen to jointly build state-owned PV power plants in China, which is based on the effective action taken by the former who are not sure about the PV price in the Chinese market.
The American company he refers to is First Solar, the world's largest manufacturer of thin-film batteries. On January 5th this year, First Solar and China General Nuclear Power Solar Energy Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "China Guangdong Nuclear") signed a memorandum of understanding, and the two sides will jointly develop a 30-megawatt AC project for the first phase of Ordos Photovoltaic Power Plant. According to this memorandum, China Guangdong Nuclear Power will be the main body for the construction and operation of the project and will be responsible for project engineering, procurement and construction (EPC) work. According to the information released by First Solar, the company is expected to build a total of 2G watts of photovoltaic power plants in Ordos, which will be completed in four phases. It is estimated that the entire project will be completed in 2019. 2G watts may be equivalent to about 4 times the total installed PV installations in China last year.
“Although the domestic PV market has already started, it seems that the intensity is not large enough compared to other parts of the world. Assuming that the photovoltaic power price in each region cannot be determined, then some investors who are very cautious and develop their own funds will find it more risky. Photovoltaic module prices in the Chinese market are also often weighed down so that the willingness of the module factory to directly supply power to the power plant is not strong enough,†stressed Wang Liusheng.
JA Solar CEO Fang Peng’s view is even clearer. He believes that including photovoltaic industry associations, current bids, and national policies on the photovoltaic industry have not played a large role in stimulating the start-up industry. (China) Shorten the learning cycle as soon as possible. "If it is not resolved from the policy side, it will be difficult for the industry to develop."
However, the aforementioned officials also believe that companies cannot rely solely on national policies, but need to reduce costs and increase efficiency through market competition.
Wang Liusheng said that if there is no bid low price, then the costs of components and other links cannot be effectively compressed, and it is even less likely to reduce the PV price.
What problems need to be solved?
Under the hot weather, what issues does China's photovoltaic industry need to pay enough attention to? Gao Jifan, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of Trina Solar (TSL.NYSE), stated that counterfeit goods in overseas markets are a real headache. “Whether it is a famous or non-famous trademark, there will be counterfeit products. I think This is an injury to Chinese companies."
In addition, although the Philippines and other countries have great potential for photovoltaic industry, after all, the investment in photovoltaic power plants is long-term. If there is no double insurance such as political and economic development, the attractiveness of PV power plants in the region is still small.
For example, after a photovoltaic power station is built, based on annual PV tariff subsidies, the power plant is estimated to have a fixed rate of return of 6% per year. However, if the government authorities cut all the original subsidies, then the power station will only It can be an empty shell and the company will lose everything.
The industry leaders in the future are photovoltaic companies that are growing up. They are still some large multinational companies. Fang Peng has pointed out that some large companies have already acquired PV companies in China (the most famous example is Korea Hanwha Group's acquisition of Jiangsu Linyang Solar). In addition, China must have some national-level laboratories or international-level laboratories to strengthen investment through cooperation in order to continue to improve its own manufacturing technology and R&D technology.
The problem
Throughput is an important indicator of Ethernet testing. Many engineers believe that the Ethernet switching throughput should be its line rate, that is, no packet loss can occur at 100% traffic, and that it is illegal for the Ethernet frame interval IFG to be less than 96 bits. However, in the Ethernet switching throughput and packet loss rate test, a small amount of packet loss occurs in the long-term error test under the line speed condition. The reason is the cross-clock domain architecture of the Ethernet.
With the rapid development and application of industrial Ethernet technology, a large number of network problems have appeared along with it. According to statistics provided by Siemens, the network communication failure rate accounts for more than 70%, and the network equipment failure rate is less than 30%. After a network failure causes the system to shut down, the time required for fault diagnosis and location accounts for more than 80% of the total system downtime, while maintenance measures take up less than 20%. Therefore, real-time monitoring and analysis of network traffic is a major problem in the development and application of industrial Ethernet. Real-time monitoring and analysis of industrial Ethernet network traffic and timely detection and location of network problems play a vital role in improving the stable operation of the entire system. .
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