At present, the LED industry market is like a green field with a large number of players, and the pattern is scattered. Some of the top LED lighting brands such as Philips, Osram, Panasonic, General Electric, Vision Brand, Fort Ord, Toshiba, Cooper Lighting, Cree, Haber, etc. occupy a total market share of no more than 30% in the lighting industry. Most of the rest of the market space is dominated by smaller suppliers and emerging companies with unique products and innovative business models. Therefore, there are many opportunities in the LED lighting market, but the competition is particularly fierce.
LED lighting modules may be higher gross than lamps
Just as innovative technologies and business models have driven the development of the computer industry, the LED industry will continue to mature. The next generation of LED lighting will drive industry growth by leading-edge LED companies that can see market trends and take advantage of the latest technology.
1. The competition in the LED lighting industry will be more intense, especially in the field of LED packaging.
In some respects, LED lighting is similar to a computer CPU, and a complex finished product is assembled from components designed by different manufacturers, contractors, and suppliers. Both are driven by semiconductor processes. Just as Moore's Law predicts an increase in CPU and memory performance over the years, LED performance and luminous efficiency are also driven by transistor density and manufacturing processes.
[Remarks] Moore's Law is one of Intel's founders, Gordon? Moore (GordonMoore) proposed. The content is: When the price is constant, the number of components that can be accommodated on the integrated circuit will double every 18-24 months, and the performance will be doubled. In other words, the performance of computers that can be bought for every dollar will more than double every 18-24 months. This law reveals the speed of advances in information technology.
The LED packaging market is like a CPU, and it needs to continuously improve the production process to improve performance. However, the CPU in the computer industry is monopolized by the Intel Group, while the LED industry has several competitive leading brands and some local suppliers, so the market competition will be more intense. Price competition in this market segment means that LED package prices will continue to decline while performance continues to increase.
According to foreign industry insiders, the most cost-effective high-efficiency LED lighting module will drop to US$0.13/W by the end of 2015, and the price of LED lighting module with 150lm/W performance will drop to US$0.10/W or below by the end of 2016. .
2. The source of value will be transferred from the LED lighting components to the drive and cooling module
As expected above, the cost of a lighting module for a 100W LED luminaire will reach around $10 by the end of 2016. The same 100W mid-range and high-end LED luminaires, the cost of the thermal module or LED driver will be two to three times the cost of the lighting components. The value of LED lighting products will shift from LED lighting components to LED drivers and thermal modules.
This is because the manufacturing process of LED packages will become more and more automated, and the price of LED lighting components will become cheaper and cheaper. However, the production of heat dissipation modules and LED drivers is more dependent on raw materials and labor costs, and lacks price flexibility. Unless the price of the raw material changes, the material cost of the heat sink module or LED driver is almost constant without excessive fluctuations.
3. The gross profit margin of LED lighting modules will continue to impact other zero devices.
Compared to LED drivers and thermal design, LED packaging requires high manpower and capital investment. Not only must we build a factory, we also need to invest a lot of money to purchase packaging equipment. In addition, high operating costs and manpower reserves are required. Coupled with fierce competition, the profit is meager.
On the other hand, in the LED power supply and cooling industry, several advanced design engineers are enough to design effective cost-effective products with relatively low labor costs. And the equipment used to make LED drivers and cooling modules often does not need to be so professional, and it is also cheaper to use depreciated equipment and has a large profit margin. Therefore, the LED lighting module's gross margin will be higher than other zero devices.
4, COB package will have a bright future
As the cost of raw materials declines, the quality and efficiency of COB continues to increase. Sales of COB packaging products will continue to rise in the next few years. Especially for compact COBs with more LED luminaire designs.
There are already 100W, 200W, and even more than 300W COBLEDs on the market. Only a strong COB plus high-quality lens, cooling module and low-power LED driver can help LED luminaire manufacturers produce a 100W~300W (system light efficiency over 100 lumens / watt, CRI80) lighting products . The material cost of COB packaged luminaires is significantly lower than that of conventional package luminaires, and the assembly process is simplified, further reducing labor costs.
Photoelectric engine is the crossover of LED package to power supply
It is not new for LED packaging companies to increase their revenues. It is not a new thing to stick to the traditional packaging business. If the volume is large enough, it is difficult to extract meager profits from the Red Sea. As a result, packaging companies with technological advantages have high technical barriers, high-margin UVLED, agricultural lighting, automotive lighting, medical lighting market, and AC LED has become the "object" sought by most packaging companies.
1, AC LED came into being
In 2015, SMD+IC and AC-COB became the main products of major packaging companies. The promotion of light source module components and IC integration products proves that system integration, modularization and modularization have become one of the development directions in the field of packaging.
In the earlier interview, Yi Guoxinguang CTO Liu Guoxu also said that the cross-border between the various ends of the industry chain is another trend of packaging companies this year. The AC module is the product of this trend.
In fact, the future development trend of the packaging enterprise should be between the two sides of the chip and the application side, integrating the structure, heat dissipation, even secondary optics, and the driving power supply on the same substrate, so-called light engine or light source module. This can give full play to the advantages of LED semiconductor devices and bring great convenience to downstream lighting customers. “I believe that the overall solution provided by the packaging company is exactly what the lighting customer base hopes. Bringing high value-added to downstream customers is the foundation for our packaging factories to survive.†Liu Guoxu said.
In the early days, the photoelectric engine was also sizzled as “de-poweredâ€. To some extent, the market space of traditional power companies will be compressed, and power companies are eager to try and hope to survive through transformation. Yan Chongguang, who advocates “de-poweringâ€, admits that “power companies do not understand packaging technology and processes, and there is no packaging equipment. It is difficult to cut into this field unless it is restarted.â€
2, the advantages of HV LEDs
It is understood that the AC LED is a light-emitting module that uses photoelectrically integrated AC rectification and driver in the COB package circuit, that is, "photoelectric engine".
Yan Chongguang said that the AC module can be divided into two types. One is that the LED lamp bead is used as both a rectifier diode and a light source, such as the early introduction of Seoul Semiconductor, but because the LED is used as a rectifier diode to bridge the dispersion is too large, so this The method has basically stopped. The second is HVLED COB + high voltage linear constant current drive = photoelectric engine, the latter is currently used more. Four or five years ago, only Ningbo Meiya started research and development, and so far there are many companies involved in China, such as three-dimensional, Zhongli, and Jingke.
Specific analysis, HV LEDs are high voltage (DC45-280V), small current (10-60mA) light source board application, the biggest advantage of HV LEDs is that the uniform distribution technology of HVLED and small current drive can effectively reduce the heat of LED light source. .
At the same time, the application circuit of the high-voltage linear constant current driving power chip does not need electrolytic capacitors, transformers, inductors, so that the high-voltage linear constant current power supply can be designed on the light source board to form a photoelectric engine, and the constant current driving power source is integrated on the LED light source board. High-voltage linear constant current chips, rectifier bridge stacks and high-voltage LED lamp beads can be automatically produced by automatic placement machine machines, which greatly saves labor costs and increases productivity.
And, the photoelectric engine makes it easier to achieve intelligent control of lighting.
3, photovoltaic engine marketization may not be far
"Photoelectric engine will be one of the future development directions of LED lighting technology." Yan Chongguang is full of confidence in the future of photoelectric engine. "For packaging companies, from the simple LED package to the photoelectric integrated photoelectric engine, you can increase yourself. Profit and market share. And packaging manufacturers have technical advantages, which can effectively shorten the time of research and development. Transforming the photoelectric engine is a bright road under the meager profit space."
However, Zhao Chunbo, director of Ming Microelectronics' market, believes that from the current technical level, the photoelectric engine that encapsulates the IC onto the light source board is not mature, and is still in the concept stage of research and development, and there is no real mass production. But there is no denying that it will be a development direction in a certain segment.
The photoelectric engine can reduce the driving cost of the lamp by 20%-30%, effectively avoiding the damage of the LED lamp caused by the driving power source, and conforming to the development trend of simplification and high integration, but it has problems of poor heat dissipation, low stability, stroboscopic, etc. As Zhao Chunbo said, the photoelectric engine has not yet been truly marketable. However, it is understood that Seoul Semiconductor has taken the lead in breaking through the stroboscopic bottleneck. It has promoted the development of the AC RICH3 generation product that has improved the optical stroboscopic problem of the AC LED itself, and can realize the intelligent lighting function. The marketization of photovoltaic engines may not be far.
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